*
Journalists have uncritically welcomed the global environmental movement's claims of pollution, eco-disaster, the inevitable decline of First World societies - and global warming. Perhaps this is because without the Green scares, it would have been difficult for for journalists to produce scary headlines with which to sell more newspapers and attract television viewers....
Politicians are always willing to jump ahead of any parade, and the parade of global warming believers has been expanding under the careful cultivation of the alarmists and the scare headlines. Former US President Al Gore is not an unusual character in our political history.
What's new is that large parts of the scientific community have learned from the professional environmentalists and journalists how scares can generate funding and political power... Global warming in recent decades has generated at least $2 billion per year in research funding. This, in turn, has launched thousands of federally funded research projects, tens of thousands of PhD degrees and even more associate positions, and dozens of new professional journals to publish these results. A "solution" to the global warming problem might cause a Great Depression among the natural science facilities of the world's universities.
Avery & Singer, Unstoppable Global Warming.
If in the dark, if in crazy times, the electric worms disappearing in shivers up the spine, whole flocks of the disassembled - seeking what, he knew not. Oh craven days, oh happy larks, oh how we long for simpler times. To be utterly transported. To have the sun shining through clouds, to be taken away, sucked up in the narrative, whispering secrets to confidantes, to be saved, fundamentally, from one self.
He was surprised, repeatedly, by the gullibility of the masses. They believed the most astonishing lies. That family courts act in the best interests of children. That one in three women are the victims of domestic violence. That the nation is gripped by an obesity epidemic. That multiculturalism is an incontrovertible success. That jihad is not coming. That there is no such thing as "the white retreat". Oh spin us another one. Go talk to the remnant populations, see what these ancient pensioners, those embittered souls, really think of the strangers in their suburb.
But the knowledge class holds full sway. They peddle whatever they believe, the beliefs of the moment, and ridicule all not sophisticated enough to believe as they do. Global warming, mass hysteria, it's a classic study in the formation of belief. How did the public become so overwhelmingly convinced of what is in fact a fairly obtuse scientific argument, with little or no proof, no consensus. That's one of the things that fascinates me the most: that there is no common ground between the sceptics and the alarmists. And the sceptics are out of vogue.
No one wants to be different. No one wants to stand out from the crowd, to be ridiculed for unfashionable beliefs, to be labelled as a holocaust denier or a paedophile priest, to march through the vast libraries that make up our culture and sing most glorious song, we are the army, we are the faith, we are as one. The human accidents, the relics cast on to the side of the road, cast out from the pack, are as nothing in the great flow of history.
Global warming was a gift for politicians right from the beginning. All they had to do was open their mouth and express concern and they went straight to the top of the moral ladder. They were good concerned people with the best interests of the planet at heart. They were doing good work, saving humanity, fighting the forces of nature, holding back the tide like King Canut - or whoever it was.
Our race memories go back a long way, to a time of simple villages, pre the era of mass media. Time, back then back when, operated in a different way, at a different pace. Days could pass without any knowledge of the outside world, or any desire for knowledge of greater things. Intellectual debate was the domain of the rich. High art was indeed very rare and very beautiful. Now any one can blog. Any one can argue. Anyone can download our culture's greatest art works in seconds, find the most obscure books, plug into the most esoteric debates. Now the calamities of daily life clutter our waking thoughts, Big Brother watches over us with commercial trash at is heart, greed and triviality, garbage, make up its soul.
We're blessed with rich and complex lives, even the most ordinary of us. We can see the tsunamis wreck havoc across Asia. We can watch the World Towers collapse in dust and smoke, watch with wonder the planes slicing into their sides. We can join debates about Islam and we can accept that there is no excuse for ignorance any more. Knowledge is only a click away. Make us warm, make us feel, embrace our good intents and smile your crooked smile: care for our misshapen souls.
THE BIGGER STORY:
http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/may/30/climate-concern-ripped-as-religion/
David R. Sands THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Friday, May 30, 2008
Environmentalism, says Czech President Vaclav Klaus, is the new communism, a system of elite command-and-control that kills prosperity and should similarly be condemned to the ash heap of history.
The provocative Mr. Klaus, an economist by training and former prime minister, said in an interview that today's global warming activists are the direct descendants of the old Marxists who trampled on individual freedoms and undermined free markets in pursuit of a greater good.
"I understand that global warming is a religion conceived to suppress human freedom," he told editors and reporters at The Washington Times. "It is used to justify an enormous scope for government intervention vis-a-vis the markets and personal freedom."
The 66-year-old Mr. Klaus was in Washington this week for talks with senior U.S. officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, and to tout his new book, "Blue Planet in Green Shackles," about the dangers to life, liberty and prosperity posed by the modern environmental movement.
His Washington meetings included discussions on a pact to situate key parts of a U.S. missile defense shield in the Czech Republic. A top Bush administration priority, the system is designed to defend against attacks from rogue states such as Iran.
http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:B5abXFPvwSgJ:epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm%3FFuseAction%3DFiles.View%26FileStore_id%3D56dd129d-e40a-4bad-abd9-68c808e8809e+journalists+have+uncritically+welcomed+the+global+environmental+movement's+claims&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=7&gl=au
Dr. R. K. Pachauri
Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC Secretariat
c/o World Meteorological Organization
bis Avenue de la Paix
C.P. 00
CH- Geneva
Switzerland
Dear Dr. Pachauri:
When I became Chairman of the United States Senate’s Committee on Environment and Public Works,
one of my top three priorities was to improve the quality of environmental science used in public policy-
making by removing politics from science. I have convened hearings on this subject and, more specifi-
cally, the issue of global warming science. The more I have researched the issue, the more convinced
I have become that climate science is being co-opted by those who care more deeply about promoting
Page 37
doomsday scenarios to further their own, broader agendas than they do about scientific integrity. I am
committed to returning integrity to the scientific process so that the focus is on objective scientific in-
quiry and assessment and not on influencing public opinion to support political goals.
On November th, 00 , I addressed my colleagues in the United States Senate to express the impor-
tance of returning integrity to the processes that govern the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). Over the last decade, a number of flaws and even abuses in those processes
designed to influence public opinion have become evident.
My concern was further heightened by comments you made yesterday in Montreal at a forum titled “Ar-
riving at a post- 0 Climate Change Settlement: Technology Options & Cooperative Opportunities.” In
your formal commentary concerning a public opinion survey on climate change, you stated:
In the fourth assessment, we will conduct an extensive outreach effort. If facts are highlighted, not exag-
gerated… then it will help in changing public perception.
Such an effort, and such an attitude, is in direct conflict with an objective assessment of the science, free
of political goals. Selective presentations of facts, whether accurate or not, skew the public’s understand-
ing of the issue by eliminating contrary findings and potentially considerable uncertainty about their
accuracy. Moreover, the IPCC has a history of failing your one condition – that findings not be exagger-
ated – as I detailed for my Senate colleagues. To be direct, the IPCC is no longer an institution that can
be credibly relied upon in setting public policy. As the IPCC nears conclusion of its work on the fourth
assessment report, I wish to share with you, in the enclosed speech, the concerns I expressed on the floor
of the Senate last month as well as offer solutions that I believe, if adopted, would help the IPCC regain
its scientific credibility.
My primary concerns lie with how certain scientific conclusions are selected or excluded from the
IPCC’s consideration and presentation, and how the science has been manipulated in order to reach a
predetermined conclusion. These problems must be remedied in order for the IPCC to present a fair and
impartial conclusion as to the current state of climate science.
James M. Inhofe
United States Senate
Chairman
Committee on Environment and Public Works
http://www.accesstoenergy.com/view/atearchive/s76a5513.htm
The 11th¾century English (Danish-Viking) King Canut replaced direct plunder by a more efficiently administered and ruinous tax (Danegeld) imposed on the peasantry. He is also remembered for having the sea whipped with chains after it sank some of his ships in a storm. I propose that he be canonized for both deeds as the patron saint of the Holy Church of Watermelons [AtE Feb 90].
That a handful of troopers could affect as gargantuan a mass, volume and energy as Britain's coastal waters indicates a mega-lomania unparalleled until the end of our century. The Green eco-megalomaniacs, who generally believe that man is an offensive blemish on nature, also believe in the mystic powers of this tiny creature for controlling the titanic natural forces unleashed in the atmosphere. Such silliness is surprising in Canut, who had a passable education; it is more readily understood in the graduates of Harvard, Dartmouth, and Berkeley.
As the High Holy Holiday of Earth Day approaches, and as the politicians meet at international conferences to decide who is to perform what dance to gain favor with the Green Church, take a look at how much CO2 production they might at best control¾ even if they had the totalitarian power of Bush's buddy Butcher Deng or of Honorary Citizen of Texas and receiver of the keys to the City of Washington, D.C., Nicolae Ceausescu (see Rathole in Fort Freedom).
The upper layers of the sea act both as absorber and releaser of CO2; the same is true of vegetation, which absorbs it in photosyn-thesis (day) and releases it in respiration (night). These two com-prise 96% (!) of the CO2 sources on the earth. The approximate CO2 production and elimination is given in an IAEA publication (1) based on US EPA and Dutch government figures:
Sources, natural: ocean, 376-390 megatons/year (60% of all sources); land masses, 32-440 Mt/y (36%).
Sources, man-made: fossil fuel use, 16-20 Mt/y (3%); land use conversion (deforestation), 0-10 Mt/y (1%).
Sinks: ocean uptake 389-396 Mt/y (64%); land primary produc-tion (of oxygen) 183-257 (36%).
So George Canut Bush, Margaret Canut Thatcher and the other followers of their patron saint have a tiny fraction of their countries' individual contributions to a total of 4% for the entire globe to play with in order to forestall an utterly unproven danger. And play they will, always in Canute style: more taxes, more regulations, more utterly wasted bribes to the Third World (to stop deforestation), and more CO2 in the lecture halls and from the printing presses.
Photographs taken at Windermere Dam outside Lithgow, NSW, Australia.
This is a collection of raw material dating back to the 1950s by journalist John Stapleton. It incorporates photographs, old diary notes, published stories of a more personal nature, unpublished manuscripts and the daily blogs which began in 2004 and have formed the source material for a number of books. Photographs by the author. For a full chronological order refer to or merge with the collection of his journalism found here: https://thejournalismofjohnstapleton.blogspot.com.au/
Search This Blog
Thursday, 31 July 2008
Wednesday, 30 July 2008
Who is Right?
*
Who is right?
Two authors, both with scientific backgrounds, both apparently totally plausible.
Both diametrically opposed.
One ridicules global warming as the product of hysteria and political agendas.
The other ridicules the sceptics.
Both appeared in the same paper on the same day.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24098313-7583,00.html
VESTED interests have hijacked the climate debate, and taken Australia's future hostage. The ransom they demand? Simple agreement or, at the very least, compliance.
Voices of dissent face derision. Legitimate questions are met with ridicule. But with many of the squabbling forces of power in this country now apparently united in their enthusiasm for an emissions trading scheme, it is more important than ever that we go back and examine the basis of their campaigns.
It has been an article of faith for many years that humans are gradually destroying the environment, and are specifically responsible for global warming via man-made carbon emissions. On Monday, The Australian published results of a poll showing 96 per cent of the population believes climate change is wholly or partly caused by humans.
But any detailed scrutiny of scientific data shows that the environment is quite stable. There are even suggestions the world's temperature has decreased in recent years.
From The Australian's Higher Education Supplement:
Roger Jones:
Since the Garnaut review released its findings, climate change deniers have mounted a rearguard action. Their cry is that Ross Garnaut is no scientist and that he uncritically uses discredited science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
In fact, the Garnaut review relied on the Australian science community to make its scientific case. And while Garnaut stands by his economics the science community stands by its science, particularly research following on from the IPCC's fourth assessment report, released in 2007.
The research was a key input to the Garnaut review, not least the finding that emissions, greenhouse gases, temperature and sea level rise are tracking the upper limits of projections assessed by the IPCC...
The first argument is that the Earth has not warmed since 1998 and the second is that the models used to project future climate are fatally flawed. My view is that anyone with a higher degree in science who maintains that the Earth stopped warming in 1998 should hand their degree back.
The onbly way to maintain such a position violates the basic principles of statistics: significance, use of appropriate test, causality and independence. Free speech it may be, but scientific speak it is not.
If in sequence, if in a string of thoughts, caught hollow. Separated blokes in particular don't believe a word the government says. It's one of the by-products of an utterly corrupt system where they've watched the lawyers and judges join in the fabulist lying of their exes, when they witness the brutality of the state removing children from their parents, when they witness first hand the lying and lying and lying of the domestic violence industry, when they see first hand the so-called professional psychiatrists, the family report writers, taking vast amounts of money to peddle anti-male anti-father rubbish, and they've seen the politicians sitting on their hands doing nothing while they die premature and unhappy deaths, while their children suffer.
Government corruption is one thing. The insane confabulations of your ex are one thing. To witness the duping of an entire population, that is another. To watch them heading into the darkness assisted not just by the left's pack mentality but by millions of dollars in government advertising, by parroting politicians, that is another. Do we believe? Are we called forth? Are we drowned in hysteria and shallow belief, in darkness, in the callow shallows where the mud fish, the flatheads, live, now that is another.
He was constantly astonished at how shallow the world had become. The other day the outboard advertising companies banned an add for Crikey promoting the CD of their famous breaching of APEC security by a team with one of them dressed as Osama bin Laden. They said it was too political. The billboard declared: The Best Thing To Come Out of Apec. Pretty uncontroversial. A hell of a lot of people would agree. But they banned it. Meanwhile across the city, in the most prominent positions they can find, the words beam down on every single commuter: DO YOU WANT LONGER LASTING SEX. The word SEX must be two metres high.
It's everywhere, visual pollution of the worst kind. You're talking to your kids, like thousands of other parents, desperately trying to ignore the signs. Do you want longer lasting sex, daddy? It's insane. It's typical of the world we have entered. Everything has gone wrong. Everything is upside down. We've become a communist country, he found himself repeatedly declaring. How true it was. While our bloated, over paid over cushioned over resourced smug ruling caste go about their business, smug, uncaring and contemptuous of the masses, the rest of us look on in disbelief.
It's sad, where this country has gone. Nobody questions. Nobody wonders. They never lost money under estimating the intelligence of the general population, the saying goes, and how true those old sayings now appear. He was caught in denial. He wanted to believe. What he most wanted to believe in was the common decency of the common man, that at their heart people were good. That inquiring minds and high culture all led us to a greater, higher, more evolved place. Where we bathed in beauty and admired the creativity of the world's greats. Where genius was on top.
Instead we were drowning in the culture of the lowest common denominator. Of virulent trash and astonishing stupidity, of glamour culture and celebrity obsession. Where we lauded the rich and ignored the poor. Where we bathed in evil and scurried away from originality. Where we welcomed shadows and rarely came up for air. Where conformity was ever more stifling, where the mainstream suppressed originality and free thought in manners worse than he could have ever imagined, the glossing link of media output and individual fear, where the greatest threat was to be different. The pack had taken over. To disagree or even question global warming is to be compared to a holocaust denier or a child molester; it's an insane place we've got to. And nothing will save us; not now. Retreat to the ice age, protect yourself with wealth, build hideaways, store water for the future calamity; that is all that is left, the only sane path out.
THE BIGGER STORY:
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/07/the_australians_war_on_science_17.php?utm_source=sbhomepage&utm_medium=link&utm_content=channellink
Undaunted by the dismal failure of its war on science, the Australian presses on, with a piece by Dennis Jensen. Oops, that's not the link, this is the link:
It has been an article of faith for many years that humans are gradually destroying the environment, and are specifically responsible for global warming via man-made carbon emissions. On Monday, The Australian published results of a poll showing 96 per cent of the population believes climate change is wholly or partly caused by humans.
Actually it was 80%. It doesn't inspire confidence when the Australian can't even report their own poll correctly.
But any detailed scrutiny of scientific data shows that the environment is quite stable. There are even suggestions the world's temperature has decreased in recent years.
Any real climate change in the past century has been at a glacial pace (that is, the speed of a glacier that is not melting because of the globe's supposedly soaring temperatures). Far greater periods of environmental change have been recorded in history without any human intervention. The Ice Ages, anybody?
I just want to stress that these are two successive paragraphs. I did not have to snip anything to bring them together. Jensen says the environment is "quite stable" and then he brings up the example of the Ice Ages. The Ice Ages seem to be pretty good evidence that the climate system isn't particularly stable.
We laugh today at those who once believed the world to be flat, but see no irony in the widespread acceptance now of equally spurious claims made in the name of science, as in the climate debate.
Yes, Jensen just claimed the scientific consensus on global warming is as spurious as the flat Earth theory. (And it's a myth that scholars believed in a flat Earth during the Dark Ages.)
Example of responses:
Dr Jensen: Good luck with selling your soul to get conservative brownie points in The Australian. I hope that works out well for you.
Jensen is an interesting case study in how philosophical and political beliefs can override technical training and competence. Just goes to prove that a PhD is no guarantee of anything.
A number of influential people in Russia, China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam say the planet is now entering a 30-year cooling period, the second half of a normal cycle driven by cyclical changes in the sun's output and currents in the Pacific Ocean. Their theory leaves true believers in carbon catastrophe livid.
At the wilful stupidity of the authors of such articles. The sun's overall output has not fundamentally changed in at least 30 years, and this lack of change does not correlate with changes in global temps, so how can it possibly be responsible for the global warming trend over that same period?
And did you wonder why the author did not name some of these 'influential people'? Might it be because either a) they do not exist, or b) they are not climate scientists?
Posted by: WotWot | July 29, 2008 10:55 PM
Well, I stand corrected regarding Jensen's PhD topic, but, as an engineer by training (although I've sorta swaped fields now) who spent a few years working in and amongst metalugists, I feel my point still stands. Jensen should know better.
His arguments are more akin to Andrew Bolt or Tim Blair esq grasping at straws rather than something put forward by a knowlegable scientist. The world is moving on, and with the likes of Jensen, Iron-bar, Heffo and Dana "we're aborting ourselves to extinctio" Vale on board, the Libs risk being left behind, or being dragged kicking and screaming into the present.
Posted by: ChrisC | July 30, 2008 1:24 AM
http://www.icecap.us/
ul 29, 2008
Global Warming and the Faith of the Brainwashed
By Nathaniel Shockey, North Star Writers
That global warming has continued to captivate the media, car companies, energy companies and so many more demonstrates how enormously brainwashed Americans are. Still convinced that “the entire global scientific community has a consensus on the question that human beings are responsible for global warming,” like Al Gore purported? Please.
For starters, in November 2005, Swiss researchers from the journal Quaternary Science Reviews overtly stated, “Whatever slight impact humans might have on the climate, it is too small to measure.” Bob Carter, an environmental scientist at James Cook University testified before a U.S. Senate Committee, saying, “Lower atmosphere satellite-based temperature measurements, if corrected for non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino events and large volcanic eruptions, show little if any global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 ppm (17 percent).” We’re obviously not causing the type of damage we thought we were.
David Evans, a consultant to the Australian Greenhouse Office from 1999 to 2005, shared in an article for The Australian that his initial reaction to the theory and buzz of global warming in 1999 was one of excitement, feeling “useful and fairly important; we were saving the planet.” He goes on to explain a few points: “The signature of an increased greenhouse effect is a hot spot about 10km up in the atmosphere over the tropics . . . The greenhouse signature is missing. We have been looking and measuring for years, and cannot find it.
“The satellites that measure the world’s temperature all say that the warming trend ended in 2001, and that the temperature has dropped about 0.6C in the past year. “None of these points is controversial. The alarmist scientists agree with them, though they would dispute their relevance.” I probably have significantly punier scientific knowledge than Al Gore, but it is fairly obvious that Gore’s entire premise for his misleading documentary, that we are causing global warming, is questionable at best, and most likely false.
What is truly upsetting about all of this is not that so many of us were duped. It’s that so many of us are still duped. American companies are still spending huge quantities in order to cater to this fraudulent belief. Instead of actually improving their products in ways that actually enhance efficiency and, hence, the strength of the company and the American economy, they’re catering to the brainwashed.
And in addition to the businesses, we have politicians who are either a) still clinging to empty threats about global warming or b) have seen the holes in the alleged global warming crisis but are too scared to take on the media. Is an alarmist theory that has been all but smothered really worth $6 trillion, which is what the proposed cap-and-trade climate bill is estimated to cost the U.S. by 2050? Does anyone else think this is crazy? It smells a lot like a control issue to me, but who knows? Maybe there are a lot of ill-informed people who are just really concerned . . . and we elected them to represent us.
Feel free to reach your own conclusions about why so many are still convinced of a totally unconvincing theory. But it is imperative that those of us who have learned to question global warming have the courage to say so. Our country can’t afford a government that wastes absurd amounts of taxpayer dollars fighting windmills. For full post go here.
http://www.icecap.us/
Dr. Bob Carter
The Government’s advisory channels are clogged with rent seekers, special pleaders and green activists who have misadvised the minister. CLIMATE Minister Penny Wong published an astonishing green paper in response to what she perceives to be the threat of global warming. The first sentence of the opening section of her paper, entitled “Why we need to act”, contains seven scientific errors - almost one error for every two words. Here is the sentence: “Carbon pollution is causing climate change, resulting in higher temperatures, more droughts, rising sea levels and more extreme weather.”
The statement that human carbon dioxide emissions will cause “more droughts, rising sea levels and more extreme weather” is unbridled nonsense. Such confident predictions are derived from unvalidated, unsuccessful computer models that even their proponents agree cannot predict the future. Complex climate models are in effect sophisticated computer games, and their particular outputs are to a large degree predetermined by programmers’ predelictions. It cannot be overemphasised, therefore, that computer climate projections, or scenarios, are not evidence. Nor are they suitable for environmental or political planning. Moving from virtual reality to real observations and evidence, many of the manifestations of living on a dynamic planet that are cited as evidence for global warming are, at best, circumstantial. The current rates of sea-level change, for example, fall well within the known natural range of past changes. Should we adapt to the rise? Of course. Should we try to “stop climate change”? To moderate, possibly, the expected sea-level rise? Of course not; we might as well try to stop clouds scudding across the sky.
The first sentence of the “Why we need to act” section of the green paper is followed by five further short paragraphs that are similarly riddled with science misrepresentation and error. In essence, the section reads like a policy manual for green climate activists. It represents a parody of our true knowledge of climate change.
Never has a policy document of such importance been released in Australia that is so profoundly out of touch with known facts of the real world. It is a matter for national alarm that the Government’s advisory channels should be clogged with the rent seekers, special pleaders and green activists who have so obviously misadvised Wong on the content of her green paper on climate change. Time for some due diligence, Minister. Read a summary of the other mistatements and outright errors here.
Professor Bob Carter is a geologist who studies ancient environments and their climate, and is a science adviser to the Australian Climate Science Coalition.
Who is right?
Two authors, both with scientific backgrounds, both apparently totally plausible.
Both diametrically opposed.
One ridicules global warming as the product of hysteria and political agendas.
The other ridicules the sceptics.
Both appeared in the same paper on the same day.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24098313-7583,00.html
VESTED interests have hijacked the climate debate, and taken Australia's future hostage. The ransom they demand? Simple agreement or, at the very least, compliance.
Voices of dissent face derision. Legitimate questions are met with ridicule. But with many of the squabbling forces of power in this country now apparently united in their enthusiasm for an emissions trading scheme, it is more important than ever that we go back and examine the basis of their campaigns.
It has been an article of faith for many years that humans are gradually destroying the environment, and are specifically responsible for global warming via man-made carbon emissions. On Monday, The Australian published results of a poll showing 96 per cent of the population believes climate change is wholly or partly caused by humans.
But any detailed scrutiny of scientific data shows that the environment is quite stable. There are even suggestions the world's temperature has decreased in recent years.
From The Australian's Higher Education Supplement:
Roger Jones:
Since the Garnaut review released its findings, climate change deniers have mounted a rearguard action. Their cry is that Ross Garnaut is no scientist and that he uncritically uses discredited science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
In fact, the Garnaut review relied on the Australian science community to make its scientific case. And while Garnaut stands by his economics the science community stands by its science, particularly research following on from the IPCC's fourth assessment report, released in 2007.
The research was a key input to the Garnaut review, not least the finding that emissions, greenhouse gases, temperature and sea level rise are tracking the upper limits of projections assessed by the IPCC...
The first argument is that the Earth has not warmed since 1998 and the second is that the models used to project future climate are fatally flawed. My view is that anyone with a higher degree in science who maintains that the Earth stopped warming in 1998 should hand their degree back.
The onbly way to maintain such a position violates the basic principles of statistics: significance, use of appropriate test, causality and independence. Free speech it may be, but scientific speak it is not.
If in sequence, if in a string of thoughts, caught hollow. Separated blokes in particular don't believe a word the government says. It's one of the by-products of an utterly corrupt system where they've watched the lawyers and judges join in the fabulist lying of their exes, when they witness the brutality of the state removing children from their parents, when they witness first hand the lying and lying and lying of the domestic violence industry, when they see first hand the so-called professional psychiatrists, the family report writers, taking vast amounts of money to peddle anti-male anti-father rubbish, and they've seen the politicians sitting on their hands doing nothing while they die premature and unhappy deaths, while their children suffer.
Government corruption is one thing. The insane confabulations of your ex are one thing. To witness the duping of an entire population, that is another. To watch them heading into the darkness assisted not just by the left's pack mentality but by millions of dollars in government advertising, by parroting politicians, that is another. Do we believe? Are we called forth? Are we drowned in hysteria and shallow belief, in darkness, in the callow shallows where the mud fish, the flatheads, live, now that is another.
He was constantly astonished at how shallow the world had become. The other day the outboard advertising companies banned an add for Crikey promoting the CD of their famous breaching of APEC security by a team with one of them dressed as Osama bin Laden. They said it was too political. The billboard declared: The Best Thing To Come Out of Apec. Pretty uncontroversial. A hell of a lot of people would agree. But they banned it. Meanwhile across the city, in the most prominent positions they can find, the words beam down on every single commuter: DO YOU WANT LONGER LASTING SEX. The word SEX must be two metres high.
It's everywhere, visual pollution of the worst kind. You're talking to your kids, like thousands of other parents, desperately trying to ignore the signs. Do you want longer lasting sex, daddy? It's insane. It's typical of the world we have entered. Everything has gone wrong. Everything is upside down. We've become a communist country, he found himself repeatedly declaring. How true it was. While our bloated, over paid over cushioned over resourced smug ruling caste go about their business, smug, uncaring and contemptuous of the masses, the rest of us look on in disbelief.
It's sad, where this country has gone. Nobody questions. Nobody wonders. They never lost money under estimating the intelligence of the general population, the saying goes, and how true those old sayings now appear. He was caught in denial. He wanted to believe. What he most wanted to believe in was the common decency of the common man, that at their heart people were good. That inquiring minds and high culture all led us to a greater, higher, more evolved place. Where we bathed in beauty and admired the creativity of the world's greats. Where genius was on top.
Instead we were drowning in the culture of the lowest common denominator. Of virulent trash and astonishing stupidity, of glamour culture and celebrity obsession. Where we lauded the rich and ignored the poor. Where we bathed in evil and scurried away from originality. Where we welcomed shadows and rarely came up for air. Where conformity was ever more stifling, where the mainstream suppressed originality and free thought in manners worse than he could have ever imagined, the glossing link of media output and individual fear, where the greatest threat was to be different. The pack had taken over. To disagree or even question global warming is to be compared to a holocaust denier or a child molester; it's an insane place we've got to. And nothing will save us; not now. Retreat to the ice age, protect yourself with wealth, build hideaways, store water for the future calamity; that is all that is left, the only sane path out.
THE BIGGER STORY:
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/07/the_australians_war_on_science_17.php?utm_source=sbhomepage&utm_medium=link&utm_content=channellink
Undaunted by the dismal failure of its war on science, the Australian presses on, with a piece by Dennis Jensen. Oops, that's not the link, this is the link:
It has been an article of faith for many years that humans are gradually destroying the environment, and are specifically responsible for global warming via man-made carbon emissions. On Monday, The Australian published results of a poll showing 96 per cent of the population believes climate change is wholly or partly caused by humans.
Actually it was 80%. It doesn't inspire confidence when the Australian can't even report their own poll correctly.
But any detailed scrutiny of scientific data shows that the environment is quite stable. There are even suggestions the world's temperature has decreased in recent years.
Any real climate change in the past century has been at a glacial pace (that is, the speed of a glacier that is not melting because of the globe's supposedly soaring temperatures). Far greater periods of environmental change have been recorded in history without any human intervention. The Ice Ages, anybody?
I just want to stress that these are two successive paragraphs. I did not have to snip anything to bring them together. Jensen says the environment is "quite stable" and then he brings up the example of the Ice Ages. The Ice Ages seem to be pretty good evidence that the climate system isn't particularly stable.
We laugh today at those who once believed the world to be flat, but see no irony in the widespread acceptance now of equally spurious claims made in the name of science, as in the climate debate.
Yes, Jensen just claimed the scientific consensus on global warming is as spurious as the flat Earth theory. (And it's a myth that scholars believed in a flat Earth during the Dark Ages.)
Example of responses:
Dr Jensen: Good luck with selling your soul to get conservative brownie points in The Australian. I hope that works out well for you.
Jensen is an interesting case study in how philosophical and political beliefs can override technical training and competence. Just goes to prove that a PhD is no guarantee of anything.
A number of influential people in Russia, China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam say the planet is now entering a 30-year cooling period, the second half of a normal cycle driven by cyclical changes in the sun's output and currents in the Pacific Ocean. Their theory leaves true believers in carbon catastrophe livid.
At the wilful stupidity of the authors of such articles. The sun's overall output has not fundamentally changed in at least 30 years, and this lack of change does not correlate with changes in global temps, so how can it possibly be responsible for the global warming trend over that same period?
And did you wonder why the author did not name some of these 'influential people'? Might it be because either a) they do not exist, or b) they are not climate scientists?
Posted by: WotWot | July 29, 2008 10:55 PM
Well, I stand corrected regarding Jensen's PhD topic, but, as an engineer by training (although I've sorta swaped fields now) who spent a few years working in and amongst metalugists, I feel my point still stands. Jensen should know better.
His arguments are more akin to Andrew Bolt or Tim Blair esq grasping at straws rather than something put forward by a knowlegable scientist. The world is moving on, and with the likes of Jensen, Iron-bar, Heffo and Dana "we're aborting ourselves to extinctio" Vale on board, the Libs risk being left behind, or being dragged kicking and screaming into the present.
Posted by: ChrisC | July 30, 2008 1:24 AM
http://www.icecap.us/
ul 29, 2008
Global Warming and the Faith of the Brainwashed
By Nathaniel Shockey, North Star Writers
That global warming has continued to captivate the media, car companies, energy companies and so many more demonstrates how enormously brainwashed Americans are. Still convinced that “the entire global scientific community has a consensus on the question that human beings are responsible for global warming,” like Al Gore purported? Please.
For starters, in November 2005, Swiss researchers from the journal Quaternary Science Reviews overtly stated, “Whatever slight impact humans might have on the climate, it is too small to measure.” Bob Carter, an environmental scientist at James Cook University testified before a U.S. Senate Committee, saying, “Lower atmosphere satellite-based temperature measurements, if corrected for non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino events and large volcanic eruptions, show little if any global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 ppm (17 percent).” We’re obviously not causing the type of damage we thought we were.
David Evans, a consultant to the Australian Greenhouse Office from 1999 to 2005, shared in an article for The Australian that his initial reaction to the theory and buzz of global warming in 1999 was one of excitement, feeling “useful and fairly important; we were saving the planet.” He goes on to explain a few points: “The signature of an increased greenhouse effect is a hot spot about 10km up in the atmosphere over the tropics . . . The greenhouse signature is missing. We have been looking and measuring for years, and cannot find it.
“The satellites that measure the world’s temperature all say that the warming trend ended in 2001, and that the temperature has dropped about 0.6C in the past year. “None of these points is controversial. The alarmist scientists agree with them, though they would dispute their relevance.” I probably have significantly punier scientific knowledge than Al Gore, but it is fairly obvious that Gore’s entire premise for his misleading documentary, that we are causing global warming, is questionable at best, and most likely false.
What is truly upsetting about all of this is not that so many of us were duped. It’s that so many of us are still duped. American companies are still spending huge quantities in order to cater to this fraudulent belief. Instead of actually improving their products in ways that actually enhance efficiency and, hence, the strength of the company and the American economy, they’re catering to the brainwashed.
And in addition to the businesses, we have politicians who are either a) still clinging to empty threats about global warming or b) have seen the holes in the alleged global warming crisis but are too scared to take on the media. Is an alarmist theory that has been all but smothered really worth $6 trillion, which is what the proposed cap-and-trade climate bill is estimated to cost the U.S. by 2050? Does anyone else think this is crazy? It smells a lot like a control issue to me, but who knows? Maybe there are a lot of ill-informed people who are just really concerned . . . and we elected them to represent us.
Feel free to reach your own conclusions about why so many are still convinced of a totally unconvincing theory. But it is imperative that those of us who have learned to question global warming have the courage to say so. Our country can’t afford a government that wastes absurd amounts of taxpayer dollars fighting windmills. For full post go here.
http://www.icecap.us/
Dr. Bob Carter
The Government’s advisory channels are clogged with rent seekers, special pleaders and green activists who have misadvised the minister. CLIMATE Minister Penny Wong published an astonishing green paper in response to what she perceives to be the threat of global warming. The first sentence of the opening section of her paper, entitled “Why we need to act”, contains seven scientific errors - almost one error for every two words. Here is the sentence: “Carbon pollution is causing climate change, resulting in higher temperatures, more droughts, rising sea levels and more extreme weather.”
The statement that human carbon dioxide emissions will cause “more droughts, rising sea levels and more extreme weather” is unbridled nonsense. Such confident predictions are derived from unvalidated, unsuccessful computer models that even their proponents agree cannot predict the future. Complex climate models are in effect sophisticated computer games, and their particular outputs are to a large degree predetermined by programmers’ predelictions. It cannot be overemphasised, therefore, that computer climate projections, or scenarios, are not evidence. Nor are they suitable for environmental or political planning. Moving from virtual reality to real observations and evidence, many of the manifestations of living on a dynamic planet that are cited as evidence for global warming are, at best, circumstantial. The current rates of sea-level change, for example, fall well within the known natural range of past changes. Should we adapt to the rise? Of course. Should we try to “stop climate change”? To moderate, possibly, the expected sea-level rise? Of course not; we might as well try to stop clouds scudding across the sky.
The first sentence of the “Why we need to act” section of the green paper is followed by five further short paragraphs that are similarly riddled with science misrepresentation and error. In essence, the section reads like a policy manual for green climate activists. It represents a parody of our true knowledge of climate change.
Never has a policy document of such importance been released in Australia that is so profoundly out of touch with known facts of the real world. It is a matter for national alarm that the Government’s advisory channels should be clogged with the rent seekers, special pleaders and green activists who have so obviously misadvised Wong on the content of her green paper on climate change. Time for some due diligence, Minister. Read a summary of the other mistatements and outright errors here.
Professor Bob Carter is a geologist who studies ancient environments and their climate, and is a science adviser to the Australian Climate Science Coalition.
Tuesday, 29 July 2008
Pack Mentalities and High Farce
*
Despite all the evidence that the recent warming trend is natural and unstoppable, millions of well-educated people and many respected organisations - and even national governments of major First World nations - are telling us that the Earth's current warming phase is caused by carbon dioxide emitted from power plants and autos and methane from rice paddies and cattle herds. The alarmists say these gases are causing Earth's natural 'greenhouse' to overheat, with deadly effects. They tell us modern society will destroy the planet unless we radically change human energy production and consumption.
They warn that the polar ice caps could melt, raising sea levels and flooding many of the world's most important cities and farming regions. They ask society to renounce most of its use of fossil fuel-generated energy and accept radical reductions in food production, health technologies and standards of living to 'save the planet'...
However the alarmists don't have much evidence to support their greenhouse theory...
Unstoppable Global Warming: Avery & Singer.
It's in the dark and will remain there. No crawling towards the light. Mass hysteria. Alarmism. The absolute worst aspects of the left's pack mentality. All have now come into play. A Newspoll out this week shows the vast majority of the population believe in man made global warming and think Australia should introduce an emissions trading scheme, even if the rest of the world doesn't. We should sacrifice our economy for a moral principle, the so-called great moral challenge of the age.
The great moral challenge of the age would have been to stand up to all the global warming hysteria, but don't hold your breath waiting for the weasels who run this country to tell the population the truth: that there is no definitive proof whatsoever of man-made warming, that Al Gore and irresponsible politicians of his ilk have whipped up hysteria on the subject for a multiplicity of self-interested reasons, including the imposition of socialist constructs over the top of capitalism, stifling and controlling our economies and our cultures.
They have exploited the pack mentality to the hilt. They have exploited the often well intentioned left wing leanings of the nation's teachers. They have ridiculed those who dare to disagree with them. They have isolated and thrown stones at anyone who doesn't think as they do, repeating their own behaviour as bullies in the school yard, picking on the kid who was different. So hysterical has the global warming rubbish become, it infiltrates through our daily news cycle, dominates thousands of dinner conversations. Garnaut's town hall meetings, after the release of his hefty tome, have all the characteristics of religious revival meetings.
And we all fall down, we all fall down, suckers to the last. Abject idiots, we grovel on the ground, waiting to be run over. Nothing could be more ridiculous than the endless predictions of cyclones enveloping our shores, crazy days enveloping our life. We make way for the darkness. We bow and scrape, welcoming the barbarians into our midst. Labor has been so utterly irresponsible on this subject it defies all imagination.
Yet curiously, the global warming hysteria has swept aside all the other crises that were supposedly afflicting us, domestic violence, obesity, drugs. They all seem puny now in contrast to the fate of the planet. Riddled with lies, truth simply doesn't matter to the true believers. They don't care about rigorous honesty. They don't, apparently, care about consequence. They certainly don't seem to care about the long term health of their political parties, and what will happen when the population turns, when the intellectual fads of the moment fade and people start once more to see the light of common sense.
As one of the newspapers warned yesterday, at a time like this there is little that dissenters can do than wait quietly for the tide to pass, for the hysteria to die down. Dishonest questions marred the findings, and of course you can always find what you fund for. Billions of dollars worth of funding are being called for - Garnaut was suggesting something like $100 billion or more in research funds to be poured into the university - just like any other academic peddling the barrows of their own self importance.
But where he varied was in having so much of the population on side, so much of the population believing his often ridiculous pap. Crap. Garbage of the very first order. Computer models which take a string of highly unlikely worst case scenarios are cited as solid scientific predictions. The scientists and statisticians who peddle this garbage don't deny that you can equally get quite positive results from their studies, by simply factoring in a few more realistic measures agricultural production will double, not halve, sea levels won't rise, the sun won't fall in.
How naive are the masses, how badly they've been taken for a ride. And how utterly irresponsible are the politicians taking us all for a stroll in lulu land, the rustling trees and coloured balloons, the Wizard of Oz. God rest our souls. God protect our sanity. Because clearly, no one else will.
Photographs of a Vincent van Gogh poster in a Newtown second hand shop, Sydney, Australia.
THE BIGGER STORY:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=58024
WND Exclusive HEAT OF THE MOMENT
Scientists meet in NYC
to challenge Gore, U.N.
Hundreds of experts assert 'alarmists'
in climate debate 'have had their say'
Posted: March 04, 2008
2:28 pm Eastern
By Jerome R. Corsi
© 2008 WorldNetDaily
NEW YORK – Global warming is a natural process, not likely the result of human activities, argued more than 100 internationally prominent environmental scientists in papers presented at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, which concluded here today.
The conference, organized by the Heartland Institute, sought to refute the contention promoted by Al Gore and the U.N. that there is an "established scientific consensus" that human beings are causing the earth to warm catastrophically. The event attracted more than 500 people, including scientists, economists, policy experts and members of the public from around the world.
"The purpose of the conference is to provide a platform for the hundreds of scientists, economists, and policy experts who dissent from the so-called 'consensus' on global warming," said Joseph Bast, president of the Chicago-based Heartland Institute. "This is their chance to speak out."
"Is global warming 'An Inconvenient Truth,' as Vice President Al Gore charges, or a 'Global Warming Swindle?' Harriet Johnson, spokeswoman for the Heartland Institute asked in a statement distributed at the start of the three-day conference.
The alarmists in the global warming debate have had their say – over and over again, in every newspaper in the country practically every day and in countless news reports and documentary films," a notice on the Heartland Institute website proclaims. "But they have lost the debate."
Environmental scientist S. Fred Singer kicked off the conference by releasing a report entitled, "Nature, Not Human Activity Rules the Climate," summarizing a three-year international scientific research project conducted by the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or NIPCC, that Singer headed.
"There are many factors that affect the climate," Singer told WND. "What we can now exclude by scientific evidence is the argument that greenhouse gases are an important factor in causing global warming."
Singer and the NIPCC agree that global warming occurred in the 20th century, but disagree human activity is responsible. He argues instead that natural causes are likely to be the dominant cause of the scientifically observed global warming under discussion.
The NIPCC scientists contend the U.N. agenda "is largely hypothetical and not sustained by observations" driven by complex mathematical models.
The computer models, the NIPCC scientists claim, are only valid in a "virtual computer world," but fail to produce reliable real world predictions that can be empirically verified.
"Computer models undoubtedly have their place as a way of projecting possible consequences when one or more variables are changed," the NIPCC scientists wrote in their newly released report. "However, models do not represent reality, yet the IPCC persists in treating them as if they do."
The newly released NIPCC report presents scientific evidence that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change, a better explanation for 20th century warming than greenhouse gas effects.
Moreover, the NIPCC report argues the IPCC's estimates of future human-generated carbon dioxide emissions are too high and the higher concentrations of carbon dioxide that can be attributed to human activity have been beneficial to plant and animal life.
"Global warming is attributable to natural causes," Singer told WND, "so in that sense global warming is unstoppable, regardless what measures Al Gore or the U.N. want to impose on us with new international governmental regulations."
"Unstoppable Global Warming – Every 1,500 Years" is the title of Singer's New York Times best-selling book, co-authored with Hudson Institute scientist Dennis T. Avery.
Examining geological and historical data, Singer and Avery claim to have established a 1,500 year-cycle that generates warming and cooling of the earth's atmosphere, regardless of the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.
The NIPCC report issued at the New York City conference was written to counter the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, a scientific panel established in 1988 by the U.N. to evaluate the risk of climate change.
The IPCC and Gore and the won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for efforts to disseminate their theory about man-made climate change.
The IPCC released a report Nov. 17 in Valencia, Spain, entitled, "Climate Change 2007," arguing "much of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations."
The U.N. has utilized the IPCC to launch an aggressive agenda, largely supporting the Kyoto Protocol, calling for the establishment of a global response to climate change.
At the core of the U.N. agenda is an array of recommended governmental policies designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, including the creation an international carbon market that imposes economic penalties for non-compliance.
"Al Gore and the U.N. have a fixation with the argument that we cause global warming," Singer said. "Besides that, look at the billions of tax dollars going into various schemes like subsidizing biofuels. We're being charged twice by the global warming alarmists – once in new taxes the U.N. is planning to impose on us and then again as consumers who will ultimately have to bear the cost of these new global taxes."
http://shop.wnd.com/store/item.asp?ITEM_ID=2043
March 2007 – "HYSTERIA: Exposing the secret agenda behind today's obsession with global warming"
The U.N. recently announced global warming is leading inexorably to global catastrophe. Al Gore won the "best documentary" Oscar for his disaster film "An Inconvenient Truth." The news media beat the drum of "climate catastrophe" daily, all but ignoring scientists who say the threat is overblown or nonexistent. And across America, school children are frightened to death with tales of rising oceans, monster tornadoes, droughts and millions dying – all because of man-made global warming.
However, hidden just beneath the surface of the world's latest environmental craze is a stunningly different reality, as the March edition of WND's acclaimed Whistleblower magazine documents.
Titled "HYSTERIA: Exposing the secret agenda behind today's obsession with global warming," Whistleblower tells the rest of the story the "mainstream press" will never reveal.
To begin with, those who believe the dire warnings of today's establishment press should know, as U.S. Sen. James Inhofe has pointed out, that "for more than 100 years, journalists have quoted scientists predicting the destruction of civilization by, in alternation, either runaway heat or a new Ice Age."
Believe it or not, over the last century America's major media have predicted an impending global climate crisis four different times – each prediction warning that entire countries would be wiped out or that lower crop yields would mean "billions will die." In 1895, the panic was over an imminent ice age. Later, in the late 1920s, when the earth’s surface warmed less than half a degree, the media jumped on a new threat – global warming, which continued into the late 1950s. Then in 1975, the New York Times' headline blared, "A Major Cooling Widely Considered to Be Inevitable." Then in 1981 it was back to global warming, with the Times quoting seven government atmospheric scientists who predicted global warming of an "almost unprecedented magnitude."
Today, to cover all their bases, much of the press is changing its terminology from "global warming" to "climate change" or "climate catastrophe." That way they're covered either way: If the world gets colder, global warming is still at fault.
But hot-and-cold press coverage is just the beginning. Whistleblower's "HYSTERIA" issue reveals exactly why so many scientists, journalists and others (even the president's speechwriters now have him pay lip service to "climate change") are so gripped by global warming fever.
Here's a hint: As "Deep Throat" famously told Washington Post "Watergate" reporter Bob Woodward, "Follow the money."
Whistleblower shows how all the main players – from politicians and scientists to big corporations and the United Nations – benefit from instilling fear into billions of human beings over the unproven theory of man-made global warming. Indeed, just three weeks after the U.N. ratcheted up international fears over global warming, a panel of 18 scientists from 11 countries has now reported to the U.N. that the only thing that can stop catastrophic climate change is a global tax – on greenhouse gas emissions.
That's right. Global problems, real or conjured up, require global governmental solutions. As Whistleblower explains, environmentalism is nothing less than the global elitists' replacement ideology for communism/socialism. With communism largely discredited today – after all, 100-150 million people died at the hands of communist "visionaries" during the last century – elitists who desire to rule other people's lives have gravitated to an even more powerful ideology. More powerful because it seems to trump all other considerations, as it claims the very survival of life on earth is dependent on implementing its agenda.
Thus, while scientists and climatologists who dare to question the rigid orthodoxy of man-made catastrophic global warming are openly ridiculed and threatened with decertification, the movement for global governance, complete with global taxation, is moving into the fast lane.
"Global warming will be one of the most powerfully coercive weapons in the globalists' arsenal for the foreseeable future," said David Kupelian, WND managing editor and author of "The Marketing of Evil." "It's important that everyone understands the game being played. This issue of Whistleblower provides a powerful antidote to all the hysteria – namely, common sense and truth."
Despite all the evidence that the recent warming trend is natural and unstoppable, millions of well-educated people and many respected organisations - and even national governments of major First World nations - are telling us that the Earth's current warming phase is caused by carbon dioxide emitted from power plants and autos and methane from rice paddies and cattle herds. The alarmists say these gases are causing Earth's natural 'greenhouse' to overheat, with deadly effects. They tell us modern society will destroy the planet unless we radically change human energy production and consumption.
They warn that the polar ice caps could melt, raising sea levels and flooding many of the world's most important cities and farming regions. They ask society to renounce most of its use of fossil fuel-generated energy and accept radical reductions in food production, health technologies and standards of living to 'save the planet'...
However the alarmists don't have much evidence to support their greenhouse theory...
Unstoppable Global Warming: Avery & Singer.
It's in the dark and will remain there. No crawling towards the light. Mass hysteria. Alarmism. The absolute worst aspects of the left's pack mentality. All have now come into play. A Newspoll out this week shows the vast majority of the population believe in man made global warming and think Australia should introduce an emissions trading scheme, even if the rest of the world doesn't. We should sacrifice our economy for a moral principle, the so-called great moral challenge of the age.
The great moral challenge of the age would have been to stand up to all the global warming hysteria, but don't hold your breath waiting for the weasels who run this country to tell the population the truth: that there is no definitive proof whatsoever of man-made warming, that Al Gore and irresponsible politicians of his ilk have whipped up hysteria on the subject for a multiplicity of self-interested reasons, including the imposition of socialist constructs over the top of capitalism, stifling and controlling our economies and our cultures.
They have exploited the pack mentality to the hilt. They have exploited the often well intentioned left wing leanings of the nation's teachers. They have ridiculed those who dare to disagree with them. They have isolated and thrown stones at anyone who doesn't think as they do, repeating their own behaviour as bullies in the school yard, picking on the kid who was different. So hysterical has the global warming rubbish become, it infiltrates through our daily news cycle, dominates thousands of dinner conversations. Garnaut's town hall meetings, after the release of his hefty tome, have all the characteristics of religious revival meetings.
And we all fall down, we all fall down, suckers to the last. Abject idiots, we grovel on the ground, waiting to be run over. Nothing could be more ridiculous than the endless predictions of cyclones enveloping our shores, crazy days enveloping our life. We make way for the darkness. We bow and scrape, welcoming the barbarians into our midst. Labor has been so utterly irresponsible on this subject it defies all imagination.
Yet curiously, the global warming hysteria has swept aside all the other crises that were supposedly afflicting us, domestic violence, obesity, drugs. They all seem puny now in contrast to the fate of the planet. Riddled with lies, truth simply doesn't matter to the true believers. They don't care about rigorous honesty. They don't, apparently, care about consequence. They certainly don't seem to care about the long term health of their political parties, and what will happen when the population turns, when the intellectual fads of the moment fade and people start once more to see the light of common sense.
As one of the newspapers warned yesterday, at a time like this there is little that dissenters can do than wait quietly for the tide to pass, for the hysteria to die down. Dishonest questions marred the findings, and of course you can always find what you fund for. Billions of dollars worth of funding are being called for - Garnaut was suggesting something like $100 billion or more in research funds to be poured into the university - just like any other academic peddling the barrows of their own self importance.
But where he varied was in having so much of the population on side, so much of the population believing his often ridiculous pap. Crap. Garbage of the very first order. Computer models which take a string of highly unlikely worst case scenarios are cited as solid scientific predictions. The scientists and statisticians who peddle this garbage don't deny that you can equally get quite positive results from their studies, by simply factoring in a few more realistic measures agricultural production will double, not halve, sea levels won't rise, the sun won't fall in.
How naive are the masses, how badly they've been taken for a ride. And how utterly irresponsible are the politicians taking us all for a stroll in lulu land, the rustling trees and coloured balloons, the Wizard of Oz. God rest our souls. God protect our sanity. Because clearly, no one else will.
Photographs of a Vincent van Gogh poster in a Newtown second hand shop, Sydney, Australia.
THE BIGGER STORY:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=58024
WND Exclusive HEAT OF THE MOMENT
Scientists meet in NYC
to challenge Gore, U.N.
Hundreds of experts assert 'alarmists'
in climate debate 'have had their say'
Posted: March 04, 2008
2:28 pm Eastern
By Jerome R. Corsi
© 2008 WorldNetDaily
NEW YORK – Global warming is a natural process, not likely the result of human activities, argued more than 100 internationally prominent environmental scientists in papers presented at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, which concluded here today.
The conference, organized by the Heartland Institute, sought to refute the contention promoted by Al Gore and the U.N. that there is an "established scientific consensus" that human beings are causing the earth to warm catastrophically. The event attracted more than 500 people, including scientists, economists, policy experts and members of the public from around the world.
"The purpose of the conference is to provide a platform for the hundreds of scientists, economists, and policy experts who dissent from the so-called 'consensus' on global warming," said Joseph Bast, president of the Chicago-based Heartland Institute. "This is their chance to speak out."
"Is global warming 'An Inconvenient Truth,' as Vice President Al Gore charges, or a 'Global Warming Swindle?' Harriet Johnson, spokeswoman for the Heartland Institute asked in a statement distributed at the start of the three-day conference.
The alarmists in the global warming debate have had their say – over and over again, in every newspaper in the country practically every day and in countless news reports and documentary films," a notice on the Heartland Institute website proclaims. "But they have lost the debate."
Environmental scientist S. Fred Singer kicked off the conference by releasing a report entitled, "Nature, Not Human Activity Rules the Climate," summarizing a three-year international scientific research project conducted by the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or NIPCC, that Singer headed.
"There are many factors that affect the climate," Singer told WND. "What we can now exclude by scientific evidence is the argument that greenhouse gases are an important factor in causing global warming."
Singer and the NIPCC agree that global warming occurred in the 20th century, but disagree human activity is responsible. He argues instead that natural causes are likely to be the dominant cause of the scientifically observed global warming under discussion.
The NIPCC scientists contend the U.N. agenda "is largely hypothetical and not sustained by observations" driven by complex mathematical models.
The computer models, the NIPCC scientists claim, are only valid in a "virtual computer world," but fail to produce reliable real world predictions that can be empirically verified.
"Computer models undoubtedly have their place as a way of projecting possible consequences when one or more variables are changed," the NIPCC scientists wrote in their newly released report. "However, models do not represent reality, yet the IPCC persists in treating them as if they do."
The newly released NIPCC report presents scientific evidence that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change, a better explanation for 20th century warming than greenhouse gas effects.
Moreover, the NIPCC report argues the IPCC's estimates of future human-generated carbon dioxide emissions are too high and the higher concentrations of carbon dioxide that can be attributed to human activity have been beneficial to plant and animal life.
"Global warming is attributable to natural causes," Singer told WND, "so in that sense global warming is unstoppable, regardless what measures Al Gore or the U.N. want to impose on us with new international governmental regulations."
"Unstoppable Global Warming – Every 1,500 Years" is the title of Singer's New York Times best-selling book, co-authored with Hudson Institute scientist Dennis T. Avery.
Examining geological and historical data, Singer and Avery claim to have established a 1,500 year-cycle that generates warming and cooling of the earth's atmosphere, regardless of the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.
The NIPCC report issued at the New York City conference was written to counter the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, a scientific panel established in 1988 by the U.N. to evaluate the risk of climate change.
The IPCC and Gore and the won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for efforts to disseminate their theory about man-made climate change.
The IPCC released a report Nov. 17 in Valencia, Spain, entitled, "Climate Change 2007," arguing "much of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations."
The U.N. has utilized the IPCC to launch an aggressive agenda, largely supporting the Kyoto Protocol, calling for the establishment of a global response to climate change.
At the core of the U.N. agenda is an array of recommended governmental policies designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, including the creation an international carbon market that imposes economic penalties for non-compliance.
"Al Gore and the U.N. have a fixation with the argument that we cause global warming," Singer said. "Besides that, look at the billions of tax dollars going into various schemes like subsidizing biofuels. We're being charged twice by the global warming alarmists – once in new taxes the U.N. is planning to impose on us and then again as consumers who will ultimately have to bear the cost of these new global taxes."
http://shop.wnd.com/store/item.asp?ITEM_ID=2043
March 2007 – "HYSTERIA: Exposing the secret agenda behind today's obsession with global warming"
The U.N. recently announced global warming is leading inexorably to global catastrophe. Al Gore won the "best documentary" Oscar for his disaster film "An Inconvenient Truth." The news media beat the drum of "climate catastrophe" daily, all but ignoring scientists who say the threat is overblown or nonexistent. And across America, school children are frightened to death with tales of rising oceans, monster tornadoes, droughts and millions dying – all because of man-made global warming.
However, hidden just beneath the surface of the world's latest environmental craze is a stunningly different reality, as the March edition of WND's acclaimed Whistleblower magazine documents.
Titled "HYSTERIA: Exposing the secret agenda behind today's obsession with global warming," Whistleblower tells the rest of the story the "mainstream press" will never reveal.
To begin with, those who believe the dire warnings of today's establishment press should know, as U.S. Sen. James Inhofe has pointed out, that "for more than 100 years, journalists have quoted scientists predicting the destruction of civilization by, in alternation, either runaway heat or a new Ice Age."
Believe it or not, over the last century America's major media have predicted an impending global climate crisis four different times – each prediction warning that entire countries would be wiped out or that lower crop yields would mean "billions will die." In 1895, the panic was over an imminent ice age. Later, in the late 1920s, when the earth’s surface warmed less than half a degree, the media jumped on a new threat – global warming, which continued into the late 1950s. Then in 1975, the New York Times' headline blared, "A Major Cooling Widely Considered to Be Inevitable." Then in 1981 it was back to global warming, with the Times quoting seven government atmospheric scientists who predicted global warming of an "almost unprecedented magnitude."
Today, to cover all their bases, much of the press is changing its terminology from "global warming" to "climate change" or "climate catastrophe." That way they're covered either way: If the world gets colder, global warming is still at fault.
But hot-and-cold press coverage is just the beginning. Whistleblower's "HYSTERIA" issue reveals exactly why so many scientists, journalists and others (even the president's speechwriters now have him pay lip service to "climate change") are so gripped by global warming fever.
Here's a hint: As "Deep Throat" famously told Washington Post "Watergate" reporter Bob Woodward, "Follow the money."
Whistleblower shows how all the main players – from politicians and scientists to big corporations and the United Nations – benefit from instilling fear into billions of human beings over the unproven theory of man-made global warming. Indeed, just three weeks after the U.N. ratcheted up international fears over global warming, a panel of 18 scientists from 11 countries has now reported to the U.N. that the only thing that can stop catastrophic climate change is a global tax – on greenhouse gas emissions.
That's right. Global problems, real or conjured up, require global governmental solutions. As Whistleblower explains, environmentalism is nothing less than the global elitists' replacement ideology for communism/socialism. With communism largely discredited today – after all, 100-150 million people died at the hands of communist "visionaries" during the last century – elitists who desire to rule other people's lives have gravitated to an even more powerful ideology. More powerful because it seems to trump all other considerations, as it claims the very survival of life on earth is dependent on implementing its agenda.
Thus, while scientists and climatologists who dare to question the rigid orthodoxy of man-made catastrophic global warming are openly ridiculed and threatened with decertification, the movement for global governance, complete with global taxation, is moving into the fast lane.
"Global warming will be one of the most powerfully coercive weapons in the globalists' arsenal for the foreseeable future," said David Kupelian, WND managing editor and author of "The Marketing of Evil." "It's important that everyone understands the game being played. This issue of Whistleblower provides a powerful antidote to all the hysteria – namely, common sense and truth."
Monday, 28 July 2008
Looking Up Not Down
*
People everywhere confuse what they read in newspapers with news.
AJ Liebling
2007: Global Warming Alarmism Reaches A "Tipping Point"
The American people will soon be asked to support global warming cap-and-trade legislation that will be billed as a "solution" to global warming. These bills come at a time when the science is overwhelmingly taking away the basis for alarm.
An abundance of new peer-reviewed studies, analyses, and data error discoveries in the last several months has prompted scientists to declare that fear of catastrophic man-made global warming "bites the dust" and the scientific underpinnings for alarm are "falling apart."
I have addressed global warming on the Senate floor more than a dozen times since 2003, and today's speech will reveal that peer-reviewed studies and scientists are coming over to many of the concerns I raised years ago.
I want to talk to you today for what may be a personally unprecedented two hours or more of time to report on the recent developments which are turning 2007 into a "tipping point" for climate alarmism. I will detail how even committed left-wing scientists now believe the environmental movement has been "co-opted" into promoting global warming as a "crisis' and I will expose the manufactured façade of "consensus."
I will also address the economic factors of so-called "solutions" to global warming and how they will have no measurable impact on the climate. But these so called "solutions" will create huge economic harm for American families and the poor residents of the developing world who may see development hindered by unfounded climate fears.
We are currently witnessing an international awakening of scientists who are speaking out in opposition to former Vice President Al Gore, the United Nations, the Hollywood elitists and the media-driven "consensus" on man-made global warming.
We have witnessed Antarctic ice GROW to record levels since satellite monitoring began in the 1970's. We have witnessed NASA temperature data errors that have made 1934 -- not 1998 -- the hottest year on record in the U.S. We have seen global averages temperatures flat line since 1998 and the Southern Hemisphere cool in recent years.
These new developments in just the last six months are but a sample of the new information coming out that continues to debunk climate alarm.
But before we delve into these dramatic new scientific developments, it is important to take note of our pop culture propaganda campaign aimed at children.
HOLLYWOOD TARGETS CHILDREN WITH CLIMATE FEARS
In addition to Gore's entry last year into Hollywood fictional disaster films, other celebrity figures have attempted to jump into the game.
Hollywood activist Leonardo DiCaprio decided to toss objective scientific truth out the window in his new scarefest "The 11th Hour." DiCaprio refused to interview any scientists who disagreed with his dire vision of the future of the Earth.
In fact, his film reportedly features physicist Stephen Hawking making the unchallenged assertion that "the worst-case scenario is that Earth would become like its sister planet, Venus, with a temperature of 250 [degrees] centigrade."
I guess these "worst-case scenario's" pass for science in Hollywood these days. It also fits perfectly with DiCaprio's stated purpose of the film.
DiCaprio said on May 20th of this year: "I want the public to be very scared by what they see. I want them to see a very bleak future." (LINK)
While those who went to watch DiCaprio's science fiction film may see his intended "bleak future," it is DiCapro who has been scared by the bleak box office numbers, as his film has failed to generate any significant audience interest.
Gore's producer to kids: ‘Be activists'
Children are now the number one target of the global warming fear campaign. DiCaprio announced his goal was to recruit young eco-activists to the cause.
"We need to get kids young," DiCaprio said in a September 20 interview with USA Weekend.
Hollywood activist Laurie David, Gore's co-producer of "An Inconvenient Truth" recently co-authored a children's global warming book with Cambria Gordon for Scholastic Books titled, The Down-To-Earth Guide to Global Warming.
David has made it clear that her goal is to influence young minds with her new book when she recently wrote an open letter to her children stating: "We want you to grow up to be activists."
Apparently, David and other activists are getting frustrated by the widespread skepticism on climate as reflected in both the U.S. and the UK according to the latest polls.
It appears the alarmists are failing to convince adults to believe their increasingly shrill and scientifically unfounded rhetoric, so they have decided kids are an easier sell.
But David should worry less about recruiting young activists and more about scientific accuracy. A science group found what it called a major "scientific error" in David's new kid's book on page 18.
According to a Science and Public Policy Institute release on September 13:
"The authors [David and Gordon] present unsuspecting children with an altered temperature and CO2 graph that reverses the relationship found in the scientific literature. The manipulation is critical because David's central premise posits that CO2 drives temperature, yet the peer-reviewed literature is unanimous that CO2 changes have historically followed temperature changes."
David has now been forced to publicly admit this significant scientific error in her book.
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Speeches&ContentRecord_id=dceb518c-802a-23ad-45bf-894a13435a08
We had believed so many things so often, I suppose that's why my generation finds it so hard to believe all the climate warming hysteria. Although often highly intelligent people do believe it, probably because it fits so neatly in with their other left wing views; and it all makes sense. There had to be a price to pay for this terrible world. For the skyscrapers defying nature, for the apartment blocks defying the Biblical edict: do not build house upon house. For the traffic clogged streets and the factories pouring forth smoke into the atmosphere - although of course some of the most dramatic pictures are of power stations emitting water vapour.
My kids are appalled and embarrassed that I'm reading all the climate change sceptic stuff; including ordering the book The Deniers on the Internet yesterday, the first book I've ever ordered on line. I was virtually the last person in Australia to get a mobile phone, or so it seemed, and now I've actually bought something on the web. Yeehah. There are many different splatterings, awakenings, cringings in the corridors. U Are Brainwashed, my daughter scrawled across the pages of Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years.
In that concrete university all those years ago Zero Population Growth was the biggest thing of the day, and the impending ice age. And the horror of the straight world, as we consumed Marcuse's One Dimensional Man and wrote essay after ridiculous essay on Shulamith Firestone's The Dialectics of Sex.
Everything was valid, every culture was of the same importance as every other. So striking were these revelations, so daring did we feel, that they stayed with us throughout our lives. The Head Shop, at the bottom of the concrete steps, where they sent my jeans away to get decorated with mushrooms and butterflies, was, briefly, the centre of our world; the smell of incense and hash, the gorgeous woman who ran it. We were all in love with her. We devoured Colin Wilson's The Outsider, we knew we were different, we knew we were going to change the world.
I always had an arms full of books, falling up the stairs, arguing with the Academic Senate whether my three month late essay should be accepted without penalty. Everything was valid, man, remember. We're changing the world here, sitting around getting stoned, get off our backs. Like attracts like, they say, and I moved in with the bad boy of the campus; and our house was infinitely outrageous, as we pursued our own demons into servitude and despair.
And now we fast forward and we're not just adults, but generations have been and gone; and dozens have died. That feeling of the eternal dawn, of freshness, courage, bravery, of holding hands behind the toilet block, new and daring, was long past. When he was 16 he would not be seen dead without a cigarette, and would smoke 100 a day. Then the world changed, and these days no one will be seen dead with one, because smoking is so unfashionable. The only person who smokes in the latest X File movie is the paedophile psychic who promptly dies of lung cancer.
All is not lost. There is much that can be gained. Secret avenues will open. God works in mysterious ways. And we are so brave, we are so happy, and the joy we could have known all our lives has finally arrived. Saw The Strangers with Phillip Seymour Hoffman yesterday, at the Dendy with Joyce, who is finally out of hospital. After the horror of her experience, in those terrible locked wards with the vestiges of humans propped up in their beds, the movie about two siblings thrown together again to deal with their dying father, resonated sadly. Life is finite, all too finite.
We're warm now, we've learnt to appreciate the day. We were in The Strand Arcade, Polly and me, contemplating coffee, lunch, some form of indulgence, and I said for no particular region except that I was scratchy from lack of cigarettes, there's a meeting around the corner. I've never been to one, I'd really like to go, she said, so we did. And I sat there quietly, shuddering to think what she was making of the Twelve Steps and people blathering on about their Higher Power and how they're so f'n grateful, and they pointed at her and she declared how much she was enjoying it all and how profound she was finding it, and I was delighted to find I didn't have to deal with her barrage of cynicism and sarcasm afterwards, more a battery of questions. She spends half her life in New York, not getting out of bed until two, struggling with depression. But NY's the heart of all this, I say, people wouldn't believe you're letting all those opportunities fly by.
But that, of course, is exactly what I did for years: let all the opportunities fly by, living a life of unfinished books and half finished projects and sporadic attacks of lyricism, waiting for the world to recognise my unique genius. Oddly, they ain't come knocking; that's another of the many lessons we learn too late in life. You make your own luck. If you fail once, get up and try again. Instead of sulking in clouds of smoke, staring at the wall, waiting for the knock on the door that never came.
THE BIGGER STORY:
Studies find Arctic, Alaska climate due to natural factors
The media will not report on the historical perspective of Greenland, the ice growing in Antarctica or the Southern Hemisphere cooling. Instead the media's current fixation is on hyping Arctic sea ice shifts.
What the media is refusing to report about the North Pole is that according to a 2003 study by Arctic scientist Igor Polyakov, the warmest period in the Arctic during the 20th Century was the late 1930s through early 1940s. Many scientists believe that if we had satellite monitoring of the Arctic back then, it may have shown less ice than today.
According to a 2005 peer-reviewed study in Geophysical Research Letters by astrophysicist Dr. Willie Soon, solar irradiance appears to be the key to Arctic temperatures. The study found Arctic temperatures follow the pattern of increasing or decreasing energy received from the sun.
In another 2005 study published in the Journal of Climate, Brian Hartmann and Gerd Wendler linked the 1976 Pacific climate shift to a very significant one-time shift upward in Alaskan temperatures. These evidence based scientific studies debunk fears of man-made warming in the Arctic and in Alaska.
A NASA study published in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters on October 4, 2007, found Arctic winds blew "older thicker" ice to warmer southern waters.
Despite the media's hyping of global warming, Ignatius Rigor a co-author of the NASA study explained: "While the total [Arctic] area of ice cover in recent winters has remained about the same, during the past two years an increased amount of older, thicker perennial sea ice was swept by winds out of the Arctic Ocean into the Greenland Sea. What grew in its place in the winters between 2005 and 2007 was a thin veneer of first-year sea ice, which simply has less mass to survive the summer melt." (LINK)
Do not expect the media to report about this new NASA study blaming the "unusual winds" for moving ice out of the Arctic.
Global warming has stopped
It is important to point out that the phase of global warming that started in 1979 has itself been halted since 1998.
You can almost hear my critics skeptical of that assertion. Well, it turns out not to be an assertion, but an irrefutable fact, according to the temperature data the UN relies on.
Paleoclimate scientist Dr. Bob Carter, who has testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works, noted on June 18 of this year:
"The accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Oddly, this eight-year-long temperature stability has occurred despite an increase over the same period of 15 parts per million (or 4 per cent) in atmospheric CO2. Second, lower atmosphere satellite-based temperature measurements, if corrected for non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino events and large volcanic eruptions, show little if any global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 parts per million (17 %)."
Yes, it is true that 1998 was influenced by the warming effect of a particularly strong El Nino. But, lest you think Dr. Carter somehow misinterpreted the data, I have more evidence to bury any ‘skepticism.'
UK Officially Concedes Global Warming Has Stopped
The UK Met Office, Britain's version of our National Weather Service, was finally forced to concede the obvious in August of this year -- global warming has stopped.
After the UK Met Office --a group fully entrenched in the global warming fear movement-- was forced to acknowledge this inconvenient truth in August, they continued stoking man-made climate alarm.
Their response was to promote yet more unproven dire computer model projections of the future. They now claim climate computer models predict "global warming will begin in earnest in 2009" because greenhouse emissions will then overtake natural climate variability.
Hyping yet more unproven computer models of the future in response to inconvenient real world evidence based data is the ONLY bag of tricks left for the promoters of man-made climate doom. But it is a bit refreshing to hear climate doomsters be forced to utter the phrases like natural climate variability.
Meteorologist Joseph Conklin recently weighed in on these new developments.
Conklin wrote in August: "A few months ago, a study came out that demonstrated global temperatures have leveled off. But instead of possibly admitting that this whole global warming thing is a farce, a group of British scientists concluded that the real global warming won't start until 2009."
This new claim that "global warming will begin in earnest in 2009" sounds like the reverse of the 1930's Great Depression slogan of: ‘Prosperity is just around the corner.' Only in this instance the wording has been changed to "A climate catastrophe is just around the corner."
This is not to say that global average temperatures may not rise again - change is what the Earth naturally and continually does, and part of this is temperatures fluctuating both up and down. However, the awkward halting of global warming since 1998 despite rising emissions is yet another indication that CO2 levels and temperature are not the simple relationship many would have us believe.
U.S. surface weather measurement ‘scandal'
Another key development in 2007 is the research led by Meteorologist Anthony Watts of SurfaceStations.org which has revealed massive U.S. temperature collection data errors biasing thermometers to have warmer readings.
Meteorologist Conklin explained on August 10, 2007:
"The (U.S.) National Climate Data Center (NCDC) is in the middle of a scandal. Their global observing network, the heart and soul of surface weather measurement, is a disaster. Urbanization has placed many sites in unsuitable locations - on hot black asphalt, next to trash burn barrels, beside heat exhaust vents, even attached to hot chimneys and above outdoor grills! The data and approach taken by many global warming alarmists is seriously flawed. If the global data were properly adjusted for urbanization and station siting, and land use change issues were addressed, what would emerge is a cyclical pattern of rises and falls with much less of any background trend."
Adding to the further chilling of warming fears is a NASA data error correction that made 1934 the warmest year on record in the U.S., not the previously hyped 1998. Revised data now reveals four of the top ten hottest years in the U.S. were in the 1930's while only three of the hottest years occurred in the last decade.
Perhaps the most humorous reaction to this inconvenient correction came from NASA's James Hansen who tried to minimize the data error in August when he wrote: "No need to read further unless you are interested in temperature changes to a tenth of a degree over the U.S."
This comment was particularly outlandish, given that Hansen has become a media darling in recent years by hyping temperature differences of "tenth of a degree" to any reporter he could get within ear shot.
Essential Point #2: Unproven Computer Models Drive Climate Fears
Even the New York Times has been forced to acknowledge the overwhelming evidence that the Earth is currently well within natural climate variation. This inconvenient reality means that all the warming doomsayers have to back up their climate fears are unproven computer models predicting future doom. Of course, you can't prove a prediction of the climate in 2100 wrong today, which reduces the models to speculating on what ‘could' ‘might' ‘may' happen 50 or 100 years from now.
But prominent UN scientists have publicly questioned the reliability of climate models.
In a candid statement, IPCC scientist Dr. Jim Renwick-a lead author of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report-publicly admitted that climate models may not be so reliable after all.
Renwick stated in June: "Half of the variability in the climate system is not predictable, so we don't expect to do terrifically well."
Let me repeat: a UN scientist admitted, "Half of the variability in the climate system is not predictable."
Also in June, another high-profile UN IPCC lead author, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, echoed Renwick's sentiments about climate models by referring to them as nothing more than "story lines."
"In fact there are no predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been. The IPCC instead proffers ‘what if' projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios," Trenberth wrote in journal Nature's blog on June 4, 2007. He also admitted that the climate models have major shortcomings because "they do not consider many things like the recovery of the ozone layer, for instance, or observed trends in forcing agents. There is no estimate, even probabilistically, as to the likelihood of any emissions scenario and no best guess."
Climate models made by unlicensed ‘software engineers'
A leading scientific skeptic, Meteorologist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, a scientific pioneer in the development of numerical weather prediction and former director of research at The Netherlands' Royal National Meteorological Institute, recently took the critique of climate computer models one step further.
Tennekes said in February 2007, "I am of the opinion that most scientists engaged in the design, development, and tuning of climate models are in fact software engineers. They are unlicensed, hence unqualified to sell their products to society."
Meteorologist Augie Auer of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, former professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Wyoming, agreed, describing climate models this way: "It's virtual science, it's virtual reality."
On a New Zealand radio interview in May, Auer joked about climate models: "Most of these climate predictions or models, they are about a half a step ahead of PlayStation 3 [video games]. They're really not justified in what they are saying. Many of the assumptions going into [the models] are simply not right."
Predictions ‘simply cannot happen'
Prominent scientist Professor Nils-Axel Morner, also denounced computer models in August 2007 saying: "The rapid rise in sea levels predicted by computer models simply cannot happen."
Morner is a leading world authority on sea levels and coastal erosion who headed the Department of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University. Morner, who was president of the Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution from 1999 to 2003, has published a new booklet refuting climate model predictions of catastrophic sea level rise.
Physicist Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, the former director of both University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute and International Arctic Research Center, told a Congressional hearing in 2006 that highly publicized climate models showing a disappearing Arctic were nothing more than "science fiction." Akasofu has twice been named one of the "1000 Most Cited Scientists."
Geologist Morten Hald, an Arctic expert at of the University of Tromso in Norway has also questioned the reliability of computer models that predict a future melting of the Arctic.
"The main problem is that these models are often based on relatively new climate data. The thermometer has only been in existence for 150 years and information on temperature which is 150 years old does not capture the large natural changes," Hald, who is participating with a Norwegian national team in Arctic climate research, said in May 2007.
Physicist Freeman Dyson, professor emeritus of the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, called himself a "heretic" on global warming.
"The fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated," writes Dyson in his 2007 book "Many Colored Glass: Reflections on the Place of Life in the Universe." Dyson is a fellow of the American Physical Society, a member of the US National Academy of Sciences, and a fellow of the Royal Society of London.
Dyson focuses on debunking climate models predictions of climate doom: "They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models."
Gore Challenged to Bet on Climate Model Accuracy
Internationally known forecasting pioneer Dr. Scott Armstrong of the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, challenged Gore to a $10,000 bet in June over the accuracy of climate computer models predictions. Armstrong and his colleague Professor Kesten Green of Monash University's in Australia, found: "Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder." According to Armstrong, the author of "Long-Range Forecasting," the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods.: "Of 89 principles [of forecasting], the [UN] IPCC violated 72."
Internationally renowned scientist Dr. Antonino Zichichi, president of the World Federation of Scientists and a retired professor of advanced physics at the University of Bologna, has also taken climate models to task.
According to an April 27, 2007 article at Zenit.org, Zichichi, who has published over 800 scientific papers, said "the mathematical models used by the [UN's] IPCC do not correspond to the criteria of the scientific method."
UN Scientist Claims no climate model has ever been ‘validated'
IPCC reviewer and climate researcher Dr Vincent Gray, of New Zealand, an expert reviewer on every single draft of the IPCC reports going back to 1990, ridiculed the IPCC process as "dangerous scientific nonsense." Gray, the author of "Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of "Climate Change 2001," explained on April 10, 2007:
"My greatest achievement was the second [IPCC] report where the draft had a chapter ‘Validation of Climate Models'. I commented that since no climate model has ever been ‘validated' that the word was inappropriate. They changed the word to ‘evaluate' 50 times, and since then they have never ‘predicted' anything. All they do is make ‘projections' and ‘estimates.'"
In fact, so much of climate computer modeling is based on taking temperature data from a very short time frame and extrapolating it out over 50 or 100 or more years and coming up with terrifying scare scenarios. There is often no attempt to look at the longer geologic record.
But much of this type of modeling has about as much validity as me taking my five year old granddaughter's growth rate from the last two years and using that to project her height when she is 25. My projections may show her to be 12 feet tall based on such short time frames. Yet that is exactly how many of the computer model fears of the future are generated for sea level rise estimates and ice melt projections in places like Greenland and the Arctic.
Once again, computer model predictions are not evidence.
Computer models drive polar bear extinction fears
In September, yet another report was issued based on computer models predictions. This report found that polar bear populations are allegedly going to be devastated by 2050 due to global warming. The report was issued as part of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's consideration of listing the polar bear under the Endangered Species Act.
This is a classic case of reality versus unproven computer model predictions. The Fish and Wildlife Service estimates that the polar bear population is currently at 20,000 to 25,000 bears, whereas in the 1950s and 1960s, estimates were as low as 5,000-10,000 bears. We currently have an estimated four or five times more polar bears than 50 years ago. A 2002 U.S. Geological Survey of wildlife in the Arctic Refuge Coastal Plain noted that the polar bear populations ‘may now be near historic highs.'
Top biologists and wildlife experts are dismissing unproven computer model concerns for polar bears.
In 2006, Canadian biologist Dr. Mitchell Taylor, the director of wildlife research with the Arctic government of Nunavut, dismissed these fears with evidence based data on Canada's polar bear populations.
"Of the 13 populations of polar bears in Canada, 11 are stable or increasing in number. They are not going extinct, or even appear to be affected at present," Taylor said, noting that Canada is home to two-thirds of the world's polar bears.
He added: "It is just silly to predict the demise of polar bears in 25 years based on media-assisted hysteria."
In September, Taylor further debunked the latest report hyping fears of future polar bear extinctions.
"I think it's naive and presumptuous," Taylor said, referring to a recent report by the U.S. government warning that computer models predict a dire future for the bears due to projected ice loss.
Less Ice = More Polar Bears?
Taylor also debunked the notion that less sea ice means less polar bears by pointing out that southern regions of the bears' home with low levels of ice are seeing booming bear populations. He noted that in the warmer southern Canadian region of the Davis Strait with lower levels of ice, a new survey will reveal that bear populations have grown from an estimated 850 bears to an estimated 3000 bears. And, despite the lower levels of ice, some of the bears measured in this region are among the biggest ever on record.
"Davis Strait is crawling with polar bears. It's not safe to camp there. They're fat. The mothers have cubs. The cubs are in good shape," he said, according to a September 14, 2007 article.
He added: "That's not theory. That's not based on a model. That's observation of reality."
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Speeches&ContentRecord_id=dceb518c-802a-23ad-45bf-894a13435a08
In his new book, The Age of Turbulence Alan Greenspan wrote:
"There is no effective way to meaningfully reduce emissions without negatively impacting a large part of an economy," Greenspan wrote. "Net, it is a tax. If the cap is low enough to make a meaningful inroad into CO2 emissions, permits will become expensive and large numbers of companies will experience cost increases that make them less competitive. Jobs will be lost and real incomes of workers constrained."
Renowned economists Arthur Laffer and Wayne Winegarden drove this point home in an October 2 op-ed in the Financial Post when they wrote:
"The costs of reducing [greenhouse gases] through cap-and-trade regulations are not trivial. If implemented, cap-and-trade policies would add significant costs to production and would likely have a severe negative impact on long-term U.S. growth, an amount we estimate at US $10,800 per family."
This bill [S. 2191] is patterned after the Lieberman-McCain bill which according to an EPA analysis, would impose a price increase for oil of 20% and for natural gas of 23%. An MIT study earlier this year found the bill would increase energy costs an amount equivalent to $3500 per family of four. This study demonstrates the enormous wealth transfers involved in cap and trade schemes.
Now, there is apparently some confusion about this study, so let me describe it as best I can. The study calculated the amount of money that would be raised from businesses regulated under the bill if all the allowances under these bills were auctioned and the monies distributed, per family of four. So this figure represents not only the cost to industry, but also theoretical distributions to households. But of course, none of the bills actually distribute the monies raised from auctioning allowances to households, nor has this even been proposed. The cost of buying allowances, however, would be substantial - equal to $3,500 per family of four, and would be passed onto investors as losses and consumers as higher prices, in short, families. So however you want to describe it, at the end of the day, households are left bearing the burden of this legislation.
This will have enormous impacts, especially on the poor. A 2006 survey of Colorado homeless families with children found that high energy bills were cited as one of the two main reasons they became homeless. The Congressional Budget Office found that greenhouse gas cap and trade schemes are highly regressive and put the highest burden on the poor.
This bill apparently is designed to reward some states and penalize others to obtain votes, but is even less workable and more expensive than its predecessor, the Lieberman-McCain bill.
The bill also appears designed to drive up fuel costs in this country as quickly as possible. By setting the first emissions target only four years away, the bill creates a mandate which can only be met through massive fuel switching to natural gas for electric generation -- thus robbing home owners of affordable natural gas home heating, and driving factories overseas that depend on natural gas or low energy prices. Just last week, we heard testimony from Alcoa that its future growth is not in the U.S., where it doesn't plan to build any more plants, but in countries where energy prices are low.
I agree with Greenspan's assessment, where he states:
"Cap-and-trade systems or carbon taxes are likely to be popular only until real people lose real jobs as their consequence."
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Speeches&ContentRecord_id=edd348f9-802a-23ad-486d-7d0b009781df&Region_id=&Issue_id=
Shellharbour, NSW, Australia, pictures taken during a morning walk.
People everywhere confuse what they read in newspapers with news.
AJ Liebling
2007: Global Warming Alarmism Reaches A "Tipping Point"
The American people will soon be asked to support global warming cap-and-trade legislation that will be billed as a "solution" to global warming. These bills come at a time when the science is overwhelmingly taking away the basis for alarm.
An abundance of new peer-reviewed studies, analyses, and data error discoveries in the last several months has prompted scientists to declare that fear of catastrophic man-made global warming "bites the dust" and the scientific underpinnings for alarm are "falling apart."
I have addressed global warming on the Senate floor more than a dozen times since 2003, and today's speech will reveal that peer-reviewed studies and scientists are coming over to many of the concerns I raised years ago.
I want to talk to you today for what may be a personally unprecedented two hours or more of time to report on the recent developments which are turning 2007 into a "tipping point" for climate alarmism. I will detail how even committed left-wing scientists now believe the environmental movement has been "co-opted" into promoting global warming as a "crisis' and I will expose the manufactured façade of "consensus."
I will also address the economic factors of so-called "solutions" to global warming and how they will have no measurable impact on the climate. But these so called "solutions" will create huge economic harm for American families and the poor residents of the developing world who may see development hindered by unfounded climate fears.
We are currently witnessing an international awakening of scientists who are speaking out in opposition to former Vice President Al Gore, the United Nations, the Hollywood elitists and the media-driven "consensus" on man-made global warming.
We have witnessed Antarctic ice GROW to record levels since satellite monitoring began in the 1970's. We have witnessed NASA temperature data errors that have made 1934 -- not 1998 -- the hottest year on record in the U.S. We have seen global averages temperatures flat line since 1998 and the Southern Hemisphere cool in recent years.
These new developments in just the last six months are but a sample of the new information coming out that continues to debunk climate alarm.
But before we delve into these dramatic new scientific developments, it is important to take note of our pop culture propaganda campaign aimed at children.
HOLLYWOOD TARGETS CHILDREN WITH CLIMATE FEARS
In addition to Gore's entry last year into Hollywood fictional disaster films, other celebrity figures have attempted to jump into the game.
Hollywood activist Leonardo DiCaprio decided to toss objective scientific truth out the window in his new scarefest "The 11th Hour." DiCaprio refused to interview any scientists who disagreed with his dire vision of the future of the Earth.
In fact, his film reportedly features physicist Stephen Hawking making the unchallenged assertion that "the worst-case scenario is that Earth would become like its sister planet, Venus, with a temperature of 250 [degrees] centigrade."
I guess these "worst-case scenario's" pass for science in Hollywood these days. It also fits perfectly with DiCaprio's stated purpose of the film.
DiCaprio said on May 20th of this year: "I want the public to be very scared by what they see. I want them to see a very bleak future." (LINK)
While those who went to watch DiCaprio's science fiction film may see his intended "bleak future," it is DiCapro who has been scared by the bleak box office numbers, as his film has failed to generate any significant audience interest.
Gore's producer to kids: ‘Be activists'
Children are now the number one target of the global warming fear campaign. DiCaprio announced his goal was to recruit young eco-activists to the cause.
"We need to get kids young," DiCaprio said in a September 20 interview with USA Weekend.
Hollywood activist Laurie David, Gore's co-producer of "An Inconvenient Truth" recently co-authored a children's global warming book with Cambria Gordon for Scholastic Books titled, The Down-To-Earth Guide to Global Warming.
David has made it clear that her goal is to influence young minds with her new book when she recently wrote an open letter to her children stating: "We want you to grow up to be activists."
Apparently, David and other activists are getting frustrated by the widespread skepticism on climate as reflected in both the U.S. and the UK according to the latest polls.
It appears the alarmists are failing to convince adults to believe their increasingly shrill and scientifically unfounded rhetoric, so they have decided kids are an easier sell.
But David should worry less about recruiting young activists and more about scientific accuracy. A science group found what it called a major "scientific error" in David's new kid's book on page 18.
According to a Science and Public Policy Institute release on September 13:
"The authors [David and Gordon] present unsuspecting children with an altered temperature and CO2 graph that reverses the relationship found in the scientific literature. The manipulation is critical because David's central premise posits that CO2 drives temperature, yet the peer-reviewed literature is unanimous that CO2 changes have historically followed temperature changes."
David has now been forced to publicly admit this significant scientific error in her book.
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Speeches&ContentRecord_id=dceb518c-802a-23ad-45bf-894a13435a08
We had believed so many things so often, I suppose that's why my generation finds it so hard to believe all the climate warming hysteria. Although often highly intelligent people do believe it, probably because it fits so neatly in with their other left wing views; and it all makes sense. There had to be a price to pay for this terrible world. For the skyscrapers defying nature, for the apartment blocks defying the Biblical edict: do not build house upon house. For the traffic clogged streets and the factories pouring forth smoke into the atmosphere - although of course some of the most dramatic pictures are of power stations emitting water vapour.
My kids are appalled and embarrassed that I'm reading all the climate change sceptic stuff; including ordering the book The Deniers on the Internet yesterday, the first book I've ever ordered on line. I was virtually the last person in Australia to get a mobile phone, or so it seemed, and now I've actually bought something on the web. Yeehah. There are many different splatterings, awakenings, cringings in the corridors. U Are Brainwashed, my daughter scrawled across the pages of Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years.
In that concrete university all those years ago Zero Population Growth was the biggest thing of the day, and the impending ice age. And the horror of the straight world, as we consumed Marcuse's One Dimensional Man and wrote essay after ridiculous essay on Shulamith Firestone's The Dialectics of Sex.
Everything was valid, every culture was of the same importance as every other. So striking were these revelations, so daring did we feel, that they stayed with us throughout our lives. The Head Shop, at the bottom of the concrete steps, where they sent my jeans away to get decorated with mushrooms and butterflies, was, briefly, the centre of our world; the smell of incense and hash, the gorgeous woman who ran it. We were all in love with her. We devoured Colin Wilson's The Outsider, we knew we were different, we knew we were going to change the world.
I always had an arms full of books, falling up the stairs, arguing with the Academic Senate whether my three month late essay should be accepted without penalty. Everything was valid, man, remember. We're changing the world here, sitting around getting stoned, get off our backs. Like attracts like, they say, and I moved in with the bad boy of the campus; and our house was infinitely outrageous, as we pursued our own demons into servitude and despair.
And now we fast forward and we're not just adults, but generations have been and gone; and dozens have died. That feeling of the eternal dawn, of freshness, courage, bravery, of holding hands behind the toilet block, new and daring, was long past. When he was 16 he would not be seen dead without a cigarette, and would smoke 100 a day. Then the world changed, and these days no one will be seen dead with one, because smoking is so unfashionable. The only person who smokes in the latest X File movie is the paedophile psychic who promptly dies of lung cancer.
All is not lost. There is much that can be gained. Secret avenues will open. God works in mysterious ways. And we are so brave, we are so happy, and the joy we could have known all our lives has finally arrived. Saw The Strangers with Phillip Seymour Hoffman yesterday, at the Dendy with Joyce, who is finally out of hospital. After the horror of her experience, in those terrible locked wards with the vestiges of humans propped up in their beds, the movie about two siblings thrown together again to deal with their dying father, resonated sadly. Life is finite, all too finite.
We're warm now, we've learnt to appreciate the day. We were in The Strand Arcade, Polly and me, contemplating coffee, lunch, some form of indulgence, and I said for no particular region except that I was scratchy from lack of cigarettes, there's a meeting around the corner. I've never been to one, I'd really like to go, she said, so we did. And I sat there quietly, shuddering to think what she was making of the Twelve Steps and people blathering on about their Higher Power and how they're so f'n grateful, and they pointed at her and she declared how much she was enjoying it all and how profound she was finding it, and I was delighted to find I didn't have to deal with her barrage of cynicism and sarcasm afterwards, more a battery of questions. She spends half her life in New York, not getting out of bed until two, struggling with depression. But NY's the heart of all this, I say, people wouldn't believe you're letting all those opportunities fly by.
But that, of course, is exactly what I did for years: let all the opportunities fly by, living a life of unfinished books and half finished projects and sporadic attacks of lyricism, waiting for the world to recognise my unique genius. Oddly, they ain't come knocking; that's another of the many lessons we learn too late in life. You make your own luck. If you fail once, get up and try again. Instead of sulking in clouds of smoke, staring at the wall, waiting for the knock on the door that never came.
THE BIGGER STORY:
Studies find Arctic, Alaska climate due to natural factors
The media will not report on the historical perspective of Greenland, the ice growing in Antarctica or the Southern Hemisphere cooling. Instead the media's current fixation is on hyping Arctic sea ice shifts.
What the media is refusing to report about the North Pole is that according to a 2003 study by Arctic scientist Igor Polyakov, the warmest period in the Arctic during the 20th Century was the late 1930s through early 1940s. Many scientists believe that if we had satellite monitoring of the Arctic back then, it may have shown less ice than today.
According to a 2005 peer-reviewed study in Geophysical Research Letters by astrophysicist Dr. Willie Soon, solar irradiance appears to be the key to Arctic temperatures. The study found Arctic temperatures follow the pattern of increasing or decreasing energy received from the sun.
In another 2005 study published in the Journal of Climate, Brian Hartmann and Gerd Wendler linked the 1976 Pacific climate shift to a very significant one-time shift upward in Alaskan temperatures. These evidence based scientific studies debunk fears of man-made warming in the Arctic and in Alaska.
A NASA study published in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters on October 4, 2007, found Arctic winds blew "older thicker" ice to warmer southern waters.
Despite the media's hyping of global warming, Ignatius Rigor a co-author of the NASA study explained: "While the total [Arctic] area of ice cover in recent winters has remained about the same, during the past two years an increased amount of older, thicker perennial sea ice was swept by winds out of the Arctic Ocean into the Greenland Sea. What grew in its place in the winters between 2005 and 2007 was a thin veneer of first-year sea ice, which simply has less mass to survive the summer melt." (LINK)
Do not expect the media to report about this new NASA study blaming the "unusual winds" for moving ice out of the Arctic.
Global warming has stopped
It is important to point out that the phase of global warming that started in 1979 has itself been halted since 1998.
You can almost hear my critics skeptical of that assertion. Well, it turns out not to be an assertion, but an irrefutable fact, according to the temperature data the UN relies on.
Paleoclimate scientist Dr. Bob Carter, who has testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works, noted on June 18 of this year:
"The accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Oddly, this eight-year-long temperature stability has occurred despite an increase over the same period of 15 parts per million (or 4 per cent) in atmospheric CO2. Second, lower atmosphere satellite-based temperature measurements, if corrected for non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino events and large volcanic eruptions, show little if any global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 parts per million (17 %)."
Yes, it is true that 1998 was influenced by the warming effect of a particularly strong El Nino. But, lest you think Dr. Carter somehow misinterpreted the data, I have more evidence to bury any ‘skepticism.'
UK Officially Concedes Global Warming Has Stopped
The UK Met Office, Britain's version of our National Weather Service, was finally forced to concede the obvious in August of this year -- global warming has stopped.
After the UK Met Office --a group fully entrenched in the global warming fear movement-- was forced to acknowledge this inconvenient truth in August, they continued stoking man-made climate alarm.
Their response was to promote yet more unproven dire computer model projections of the future. They now claim climate computer models predict "global warming will begin in earnest in 2009" because greenhouse emissions will then overtake natural climate variability.
Hyping yet more unproven computer models of the future in response to inconvenient real world evidence based data is the ONLY bag of tricks left for the promoters of man-made climate doom. But it is a bit refreshing to hear climate doomsters be forced to utter the phrases like natural climate variability.
Meteorologist Joseph Conklin recently weighed in on these new developments.
Conklin wrote in August: "A few months ago, a study came out that demonstrated global temperatures have leveled off. But instead of possibly admitting that this whole global warming thing is a farce, a group of British scientists concluded that the real global warming won't start until 2009."
This new claim that "global warming will begin in earnest in 2009" sounds like the reverse of the 1930's Great Depression slogan of: ‘Prosperity is just around the corner.' Only in this instance the wording has been changed to "A climate catastrophe is just around the corner."
This is not to say that global average temperatures may not rise again - change is what the Earth naturally and continually does, and part of this is temperatures fluctuating both up and down. However, the awkward halting of global warming since 1998 despite rising emissions is yet another indication that CO2 levels and temperature are not the simple relationship many would have us believe.
U.S. surface weather measurement ‘scandal'
Another key development in 2007 is the research led by Meteorologist Anthony Watts of SurfaceStations.org which has revealed massive U.S. temperature collection data errors biasing thermometers to have warmer readings.
Meteorologist Conklin explained on August 10, 2007:
"The (U.S.) National Climate Data Center (NCDC) is in the middle of a scandal. Their global observing network, the heart and soul of surface weather measurement, is a disaster. Urbanization has placed many sites in unsuitable locations - on hot black asphalt, next to trash burn barrels, beside heat exhaust vents, even attached to hot chimneys and above outdoor grills! The data and approach taken by many global warming alarmists is seriously flawed. If the global data were properly adjusted for urbanization and station siting, and land use change issues were addressed, what would emerge is a cyclical pattern of rises and falls with much less of any background trend."
Adding to the further chilling of warming fears is a NASA data error correction that made 1934 the warmest year on record in the U.S., not the previously hyped 1998. Revised data now reveals four of the top ten hottest years in the U.S. were in the 1930's while only three of the hottest years occurred in the last decade.
Perhaps the most humorous reaction to this inconvenient correction came from NASA's James Hansen who tried to minimize the data error in August when he wrote: "No need to read further unless you are interested in temperature changes to a tenth of a degree over the U.S."
This comment was particularly outlandish, given that Hansen has become a media darling in recent years by hyping temperature differences of "tenth of a degree" to any reporter he could get within ear shot.
Essential Point #2: Unproven Computer Models Drive Climate Fears
Even the New York Times has been forced to acknowledge the overwhelming evidence that the Earth is currently well within natural climate variation. This inconvenient reality means that all the warming doomsayers have to back up their climate fears are unproven computer models predicting future doom. Of course, you can't prove a prediction of the climate in 2100 wrong today, which reduces the models to speculating on what ‘could' ‘might' ‘may' happen 50 or 100 years from now.
But prominent UN scientists have publicly questioned the reliability of climate models.
In a candid statement, IPCC scientist Dr. Jim Renwick-a lead author of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report-publicly admitted that climate models may not be so reliable after all.
Renwick stated in June: "Half of the variability in the climate system is not predictable, so we don't expect to do terrifically well."
Let me repeat: a UN scientist admitted, "Half of the variability in the climate system is not predictable."
Also in June, another high-profile UN IPCC lead author, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, echoed Renwick's sentiments about climate models by referring to them as nothing more than "story lines."
"In fact there are no predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been. The IPCC instead proffers ‘what if' projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios," Trenberth wrote in journal Nature's blog on June 4, 2007. He also admitted that the climate models have major shortcomings because "they do not consider many things like the recovery of the ozone layer, for instance, or observed trends in forcing agents. There is no estimate, even probabilistically, as to the likelihood of any emissions scenario and no best guess."
Climate models made by unlicensed ‘software engineers'
A leading scientific skeptic, Meteorologist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, a scientific pioneer in the development of numerical weather prediction and former director of research at The Netherlands' Royal National Meteorological Institute, recently took the critique of climate computer models one step further.
Tennekes said in February 2007, "I am of the opinion that most scientists engaged in the design, development, and tuning of climate models are in fact software engineers. They are unlicensed, hence unqualified to sell their products to society."
Meteorologist Augie Auer of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, former professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Wyoming, agreed, describing climate models this way: "It's virtual science, it's virtual reality."
On a New Zealand radio interview in May, Auer joked about climate models: "Most of these climate predictions or models, they are about a half a step ahead of PlayStation 3 [video games]. They're really not justified in what they are saying. Many of the assumptions going into [the models] are simply not right."
Predictions ‘simply cannot happen'
Prominent scientist Professor Nils-Axel Morner, also denounced computer models in August 2007 saying: "The rapid rise in sea levels predicted by computer models simply cannot happen."
Morner is a leading world authority on sea levels and coastal erosion who headed the Department of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University. Morner, who was president of the Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution from 1999 to 2003, has published a new booklet refuting climate model predictions of catastrophic sea level rise.
Physicist Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, the former director of both University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute and International Arctic Research Center, told a Congressional hearing in 2006 that highly publicized climate models showing a disappearing Arctic were nothing more than "science fiction." Akasofu has twice been named one of the "1000 Most Cited Scientists."
Geologist Morten Hald, an Arctic expert at of the University of Tromso in Norway has also questioned the reliability of computer models that predict a future melting of the Arctic.
"The main problem is that these models are often based on relatively new climate data. The thermometer has only been in existence for 150 years and information on temperature which is 150 years old does not capture the large natural changes," Hald, who is participating with a Norwegian national team in Arctic climate research, said in May 2007.
Physicist Freeman Dyson, professor emeritus of the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, called himself a "heretic" on global warming.
"The fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated," writes Dyson in his 2007 book "Many Colored Glass: Reflections on the Place of Life in the Universe." Dyson is a fellow of the American Physical Society, a member of the US National Academy of Sciences, and a fellow of the Royal Society of London.
Dyson focuses on debunking climate models predictions of climate doom: "They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models."
Gore Challenged to Bet on Climate Model Accuracy
Internationally known forecasting pioneer Dr. Scott Armstrong of the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, challenged Gore to a $10,000 bet in June over the accuracy of climate computer models predictions. Armstrong and his colleague Professor Kesten Green of Monash University's in Australia, found: "Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder." According to Armstrong, the author of "Long-Range Forecasting," the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods.: "Of 89 principles [of forecasting], the [UN] IPCC violated 72."
Internationally renowned scientist Dr. Antonino Zichichi, president of the World Federation of Scientists and a retired professor of advanced physics at the University of Bologna, has also taken climate models to task.
According to an April 27, 2007 article at Zenit.org, Zichichi, who has published over 800 scientific papers, said "the mathematical models used by the [UN's] IPCC do not correspond to the criteria of the scientific method."
UN Scientist Claims no climate model has ever been ‘validated'
IPCC reviewer and climate researcher Dr Vincent Gray, of New Zealand, an expert reviewer on every single draft of the IPCC reports going back to 1990, ridiculed the IPCC process as "dangerous scientific nonsense." Gray, the author of "Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of "Climate Change 2001," explained on April 10, 2007:
"My greatest achievement was the second [IPCC] report where the draft had a chapter ‘Validation of Climate Models'. I commented that since no climate model has ever been ‘validated' that the word was inappropriate. They changed the word to ‘evaluate' 50 times, and since then they have never ‘predicted' anything. All they do is make ‘projections' and ‘estimates.'"
In fact, so much of climate computer modeling is based on taking temperature data from a very short time frame and extrapolating it out over 50 or 100 or more years and coming up with terrifying scare scenarios. There is often no attempt to look at the longer geologic record.
But much of this type of modeling has about as much validity as me taking my five year old granddaughter's growth rate from the last two years and using that to project her height when she is 25. My projections may show her to be 12 feet tall based on such short time frames. Yet that is exactly how many of the computer model fears of the future are generated for sea level rise estimates and ice melt projections in places like Greenland and the Arctic.
Once again, computer model predictions are not evidence.
Computer models drive polar bear extinction fears
In September, yet another report was issued based on computer models predictions. This report found that polar bear populations are allegedly going to be devastated by 2050 due to global warming. The report was issued as part of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's consideration of listing the polar bear under the Endangered Species Act.
This is a classic case of reality versus unproven computer model predictions. The Fish and Wildlife Service estimates that the polar bear population is currently at 20,000 to 25,000 bears, whereas in the 1950s and 1960s, estimates were as low as 5,000-10,000 bears. We currently have an estimated four or five times more polar bears than 50 years ago. A 2002 U.S. Geological Survey of wildlife in the Arctic Refuge Coastal Plain noted that the polar bear populations ‘may now be near historic highs.'
Top biologists and wildlife experts are dismissing unproven computer model concerns for polar bears.
In 2006, Canadian biologist Dr. Mitchell Taylor, the director of wildlife research with the Arctic government of Nunavut, dismissed these fears with evidence based data on Canada's polar bear populations.
"Of the 13 populations of polar bears in Canada, 11 are stable or increasing in number. They are not going extinct, or even appear to be affected at present," Taylor said, noting that Canada is home to two-thirds of the world's polar bears.
He added: "It is just silly to predict the demise of polar bears in 25 years based on media-assisted hysteria."
In September, Taylor further debunked the latest report hyping fears of future polar bear extinctions.
"I think it's naive and presumptuous," Taylor said, referring to a recent report by the U.S. government warning that computer models predict a dire future for the bears due to projected ice loss.
Less Ice = More Polar Bears?
Taylor also debunked the notion that less sea ice means less polar bears by pointing out that southern regions of the bears' home with low levels of ice are seeing booming bear populations. He noted that in the warmer southern Canadian region of the Davis Strait with lower levels of ice, a new survey will reveal that bear populations have grown from an estimated 850 bears to an estimated 3000 bears. And, despite the lower levels of ice, some of the bears measured in this region are among the biggest ever on record.
"Davis Strait is crawling with polar bears. It's not safe to camp there. They're fat. The mothers have cubs. The cubs are in good shape," he said, according to a September 14, 2007 article.
He added: "That's not theory. That's not based on a model. That's observation of reality."
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Speeches&ContentRecord_id=dceb518c-802a-23ad-45bf-894a13435a08
In his new book, The Age of Turbulence Alan Greenspan wrote:
"There is no effective way to meaningfully reduce emissions without negatively impacting a large part of an economy," Greenspan wrote. "Net, it is a tax. If the cap is low enough to make a meaningful inroad into CO2 emissions, permits will become expensive and large numbers of companies will experience cost increases that make them less competitive. Jobs will be lost and real incomes of workers constrained."
Renowned economists Arthur Laffer and Wayne Winegarden drove this point home in an October 2 op-ed in the Financial Post when they wrote:
"The costs of reducing [greenhouse gases] through cap-and-trade regulations are not trivial. If implemented, cap-and-trade policies would add significant costs to production and would likely have a severe negative impact on long-term U.S. growth, an amount we estimate at US $10,800 per family."
This bill [S. 2191] is patterned after the Lieberman-McCain bill which according to an EPA analysis, would impose a price increase for oil of 20% and for natural gas of 23%. An MIT study earlier this year found the bill would increase energy costs an amount equivalent to $3500 per family of four. This study demonstrates the enormous wealth transfers involved in cap and trade schemes.
Now, there is apparently some confusion about this study, so let me describe it as best I can. The study calculated the amount of money that would be raised from businesses regulated under the bill if all the allowances under these bills were auctioned and the monies distributed, per family of four. So this figure represents not only the cost to industry, but also theoretical distributions to households. But of course, none of the bills actually distribute the monies raised from auctioning allowances to households, nor has this even been proposed. The cost of buying allowances, however, would be substantial - equal to $3,500 per family of four, and would be passed onto investors as losses and consumers as higher prices, in short, families. So however you want to describe it, at the end of the day, households are left bearing the burden of this legislation.
This will have enormous impacts, especially on the poor. A 2006 survey of Colorado homeless families with children found that high energy bills were cited as one of the two main reasons they became homeless. The Congressional Budget Office found that greenhouse gas cap and trade schemes are highly regressive and put the highest burden on the poor.
This bill apparently is designed to reward some states and penalize others to obtain votes, but is even less workable and more expensive than its predecessor, the Lieberman-McCain bill.
The bill also appears designed to drive up fuel costs in this country as quickly as possible. By setting the first emissions target only four years away, the bill creates a mandate which can only be met through massive fuel switching to natural gas for electric generation -- thus robbing home owners of affordable natural gas home heating, and driving factories overseas that depend on natural gas or low energy prices. Just last week, we heard testimony from Alcoa that its future growth is not in the U.S., where it doesn't plan to build any more plants, but in countries where energy prices are low.
I agree with Greenspan's assessment, where he states:
"Cap-and-trade systems or carbon taxes are likely to be popular only until real people lose real jobs as their consequence."
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Speeches&ContentRecord_id=edd348f9-802a-23ad-486d-7d0b009781df&Region_id=&Issue_id=
Shellharbour, NSW, Australia, pictures taken during a morning walk.
Sunday, 27 July 2008
Fresh Optimism
*
Greenhouse Warming Advocates Say:
"Nineteen ninety-nine was the most violent year in the modern history of weather. So was 1998. So was 1997. And 1996.... A nine-hundred-year-long cooling trend has been suddenly and decisively reversed in the past fifty years.... Scientists predicted that the Earth will shortly be warmer than it has been in millions of years. A climatological nightmare is upon us. It is almost certainly the most dangerous thing that has ever happened in our history."
"Climate extremes would trigger meteorological chaos—raging hurricanes such as we have never seen, capable of killing millions of people; uncommonly long, record-breaking heat waves; and profound drought that could drive Africa and the entire Indian subcontinent over the edge into mass starvation."
"From sweltering heat to rising sea levels, global warming's effects have already begun.... We know where most heat-trapping gases come from: power plants and vehicles. And we know how to limit their emissions."
"Such policies like cutting energy use by more than 50 percent can contribute powerfully to the material salvation of the planet from mankind's greed and indifference."
"No matter if the science of global warming is all phony ... climate change [provides] the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world."
Reality-Based Skeptics Say:
"The study, appearing in the March 21 issue of the journal Science, analyzed ancient tree rings from 14 sites on three continents in the northern hemisphere and concluded that temperatures in an era known as the Medieval Warm Period some 800 to 1,000 years ago closely matched the warming trend of the 20th century."
"I want to encourage the committee to be suspicious of media reports in which weather extremes are given as proof of human-induced climate change. Weather extremes occur somewhere all the time. For example, in the year 2000 in the 48 coterminous states, the U.S. experienced the coldest combined November and December in 106 years.... The intensity and frequency of hurricanes have not increased. The intensity and frequency of tornados have not increased.... Droughts and wet spells have not statistically increased or decreased."
"Hurricanes, brutal cold fronts and heat waves, ice storms and tornadoes, cycles of flood and drought, and earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are not unforeseeable interruptions of normality. Rather, these extremes are the way that the planet we live on does its business. Hurricanes, in some parts of the world, provide a third of the average annual rainfall. What we call "climate" is really an average of extremes of heat and cold, precipitation and drought.... [A]ll the evidence from paleoclimatology and geology suggests that over the long haul, the extremes we face will be substantially greater than even the strongest in our brief historical record."
"[T]he number of major [Chinese] floods averaged fewer than four per century in the warm period of the ninth through eleventh centuries, while the average number was more than double that figure in the fourteenth through seventeenth centuries of the Mini Ice Age."
We have a large faction of intensely interested persons who say the warming is man-made, and dangerous. They say it is driven by releases of greenhouse gases such as CO2 from power plants and autos, and methane from rice paddies and cattle herds. The activists tell us that modern society will destroy the planet; that unless we radically change human energy production and consumption, the globe will become too warm for farming and the survival of wild species. They warn that the polar ice caps could melt, raising sea levels and flooding many of the world's most important cities and farming regions.
However, they don't have much evidence to support their position—only (1) the fact that the Earth is warming, (2) a theory that doesn't explain the warming of the past 150 years very well, and (3) some unverified computer models. Moreover, their credibility is seriously weakened by the fact that many of them have long believed modern technology should be discarded whether the Earth is warming too fast or not at all.
Many scientists—though by no means all—agree that increased CO2emissions could be dangerous. However, polls of climate-qualified scientist show that many doubt the scary predictions of the global computer models. This book cites the work of many hundreds of researchers, authors, and coauthors whose work testifies to the 1,500-year cycle. There is no "scientific consensus," as global warming advocates often claim. Nor is consensus important to science. Galileo may have been the only man of his day who believed the Earth revolved around the sun, but he was right! Science is the process of developing theories and testing them against observations until they are proven true or false.
If we can find proof, not just that the Earth is warming, but that it is warming to dangerous levels due to human-emitted greenhouse gases, public policy will then have to evaluate such potential remedies as banning autos and air conditioners. So far, we have no such evidence.
If the warming is natural and unstoppable, then public policy must focus instead on adaptations—such as more efficient air conditioning and building dikes around low-lying areas like Bangladesh. We have the warming. Now we must ascertain its cause...
History, science, and our own instincts tell us that cold is more frightening than warmth. It is a psychological mystery why comfortable First World residents, armed for the first time in all of history's warmings with air conditioning, have chosen to fear "global warming."
Of course, the advocates of man-made warming have attempted to bolster a scientifically weak case with a number of essentially baseless scary scenarios...
More than a Million of the World's Wild Species Will Go Extinct in the Next Century
We know that species can adapt to abrupt global warming because the climate shifts in the 1,500-year cycle have often been abrupt. Moreover, the world's species have already survived at least six hundred such warmings and coolings in the past million years.
The major effect of global warming will be more biodiversity in our forests, as most trees, plants, birds, and animals extend their ranges. This is already happening. Some biologists claim that a further warming of 0.8 degrees Celsius will destroy thousands of species. However, the Earth warmed much more than that during the Holocene Climate Optimum, which occurred 8,000 to 5,000 years ago, and no known species were driven extinct by the temperature increase...
Why have humans chosen to panic about the planet returning to what is very probably the finest climate the planet has known in all its millions of years? Is it simply guilt because climate alarmists told us we humans were causing the change?
If so, then it becomes all the more important to check their evidence.
In the morning, in the night light, in the shadows before dawn, these moments with God prickling in the fabric of things, long after the sickness and melancholy which had blanketed him in those far-off days, when he had been on the orange concrete floor, either unconscious or on all fours, the fabric of things creaking and groaning in a shrill hallucinogenic shriek. What was it al about? How did he sink so low? Why were these random, rampant thoughts so consuming, when other souls went quietly about their days, their breathing animal flesh so soft, so unthreatening, so self contained.
These oddities, these peculiar spires, were all part of the infested thought disorder that had made him so vulnerable to take over. They were having lunch at the Maroubra Hotel one day with the crazy girl Karen, who had landed in Ian's lounge room for a month, and as he sipped his lemon squash and watched every other asshole on the planet enjoy a drink, a particularly evil looking person pulled up at the lights. He had Somoan tatoos all over him, the sweeping evil strokes, and his hair glistened black. His eyes, too, were black, set in a pale face.
We all looked at each other and laughed. Woh, wouldn't like to get in his way, I said. He's infested with entities, Karen said, you can see them. It seemed so patently true, he appeared completely demonic, that it was difficult to argue. You think? I asked. Certainly looks it. Of course, she said, isn't it obvious.
Her own life was not in order, she was no role model. She was out of a job, out of a house, out of a relationship, childless and scattered, and no one could pretend that everything was going well for Karen. I she an undercover agent? we asked. She's not like everybody else? No, Ian said, I've known her for ages. She was Kevin's girlfriend. Why anyone would put up with speed addled Kev, in his giant old mechanics shop covered with grease and full of old cars, was anybody's guess.
But these infestations were everywhere, through his life, through the days, through everything we ever waited for. Sadness came. Darkness. Compulsion. Nothing changed in the darkness of Vauxhall. The mornings would come and we would be desperate, hanging like dogs, the sweat building. The only thing that stood in the way of a solution was money, and our sometimes vast intellectual talents were put to evil purpose, time and time again. Rats in a maze, they went through the same arking patterns every day; wake up, find money, score.
It was dark and Dantesque, the scenario. There was nothing like Vauxhall in the middle of winter to amplify one's personal despair, to mirror the tragic destinies of that sad little gang. We were marching forward, but nothing ever stopped. The same thing would happen the next day, the same sweats, the same compulsions, the same urges, the same desperate search for money.
And then they would wait in that strange little alcove on the top floor of the Vauxhall Terrace, wait until the ladder was lowered down from the attic, and the deal was done. No one but the closest of allies were ever allowed up that ladder, where the scenes of degradation defied everything that had been seen in Train Spotter and everything that he had imagined, all those years ago in Nimbin when the hippies decided it was time to change the world.
THE BIGGER STORY:
http://www.friesian.com/crichton.htm#crichton
If the evidence is against global warming, or ambiguous, or irrelevant, why has it become such an issue? The answer seems to be a moral and political one. We are trashing the planet with human civilization, foolishly wasting "natural resources," and hoarding wealth in the advanced countries that should be shared with the underdeveloped ones. This approach seems to be equal parts moralistic asceticism, that the virtuous embrace poverty, and the remnants of "lumpen Marxism" and the kind of half-baked socialism that is the best that the Left can do these days. The asceticism goes down well with the "chattering classes" of the press, politics, and academia, though few members of these groups practice any kind of asceticism themselves -- a point well illustrated by Crichton (the maids drive the hybrids). The socialism still sounds good in the same circles, even though all its forms are now so incoherent and discredited that they can withstand neither a moment of critical reflection nor the slightest comparison with historical experience. Nothing "trashes" the planet like even a small asteroid, or a large volcano, and human activities are pinpricks in comparison. Wealth, on the other hand, comes from human activity, not piles of "resources." Poor countries are poor, not because they lack natural resources (often they have an abundance, far more than the second largest economy on Earth, Japan), but because they lack capital, especially human capital. Human capital, indeed, consists of the kinds of skills, habits, and striving that are always bitterly resented when only ethnic minorities possess them -- minorities like the Chinese in Southeast Asia, Indians in East Africa, or Jews in Eastern Europe. They are then damned, while robbed or expelled, with all the bogus principles used to belabor capitalism -- leaving behind, of course, continuing poverty. Human capital, indeed, can generate wealth while beginning with very little of other kinds of capital. A Japan that was all but flattened by bombing, including atomic bombing, in World War II, rebuilt itself and surpassed all its former foes (except one) and allies in not much more than thirty years.
Crichton's attitude seems to have changed a bit since Jurassic Park. There we had a cautionary tale of human arrogance, with gems like, "Discovery is always a rape of the natural world," pronounced by the prophet mathematician Ian Malcolm, whose understanding of Chaos Theory seems to boil down principally to a restatement of Murphy's Law. The moral of the approach seems to be that, as Nature cannot be controlled, modern science is a fraud, a mistake, a sin, or something of the sort. Since Malcolm himself, however, says that mathematics "is just an arbitrary game," it is not clear why this, as he asserts, describes reality more fully than any other "arbitrary game." Since he doesn't advocate giving up civilization and going back to the Pleistocene (though he does seem to say that human life was just as good 30,000 years ago as now), the upshot is that we are not told what we should do instead -- and the Malcolm of the book dies, unlike the Malcolm (Jeff Goldblum) of the movie. On the other hand, Malcolm also denies that the planet, or life in general, are in any kind of trouble from our activities. It is only ourselves, not the planet, that we endanger.
Although the popularity of Jurassic Park is probably due in great measure to the theme of human arrogance and "rape of the natural world" (with the irony that the embodiments of the sin, the revived dinosaurs, are as much the draw for the movie as they would have been for the fictional Jurassic Park), the Crichton of State of Fear seems to have taken the later insight, that the planet will do just fine, more to heart, to the cost of the former. At the same time, Malcolm was quite right that Nature cannot be controlled. The problem with that is just the ideology with which it is always coupled, i.e. that human beings can and should be controlled. No one complains about the human treatment of nature without wanting to stop it, to leave Nature alone, apparently because Nature is better off without us. We see the affinity of militant ecology to the Left in the desire to suppress freedom and control people, or at least people's economic activities (though the forced abortions in China are also popular in some circles). The very idea that Nature can be "preserved" is refuted by Crichton with a fine example, how Yellowstone National Park was intended, through all its history, to be a preserve of natural life, but instead was changed repeatedly by the very measures expected to preserve it. Withdrawing humans from wilderness and then believing that Nature will there simply continue unchanged is itself a form of control, one as unlikely to work as expected as any other intervention. Militant ecology indeed assumes the very principle it uses to belabor human arrogance, that human life is different and distinct from Nature. Human arrogance, of course, supposes that human life is better than Nature, while militant ecology supposes that human life is worse than Nature.
The truth is that neither Nature nor human life can or should be controlled. Human cultural, intellectual, and scientific evolution simply continues the process by which evolution produces life in the first place -- human civilization embodies more of the forms of spontaneous order that are embodied in the structures of matter, the universe, and life. Despite the popularity of ecological ideas and the moralistic condemnations in books like Jurassic Park, it is also noteworthy that political measures with significant economic costs (at least obvious ones) are commonly losers in politics. A good example of that was the "BTU" (British Thermal Unit) tax that was proposed by the Clinton Administration when it assumed office in 1993. The idea behind such a tax was to make all forms of energy more expensive, which would discourage energy use and promote the development of "alternative" sources of cheap energy. This had in particular been a campaign theme of Bill Clinton's Vice President, Al Gore, who published an eco-doomsday book for the campaign (Earth in the Balance). With solid majorities in Congress, there was nothing to stand in the way of such a proposal by the Democratic Party. Nevertheless, the tax failed and was never revived (although other taxes were increased). Despite it being a constant theme of ecological complaint that gasoline in the United States is too cheap, and should be more like the $5 a gallon common in Europe, it does not escape notice that any serious rise in gasoline prices is greeted with howls of protest. The Democratic Party knew that it is better that such protests be directed at the oil companies and the market, rather than at a Democratic Congress.
A similar political dislocation occurred in 2004 with the movie The Day After Tomorrow. This was a heavy handed tale of ecological doom, based on the idea that Artic melting would lower the salinity of the North Atlantic, stop the Gulf Stream, and plunge Europe, at least (North America too, in the movie), into a new Ice Age. This is a real theory, and of some interest. Its catastrophism suffers from the difficulty that the Gulf Stream does not simply flow north and then sink (as heavy salt water) and return south at depth, but that the circulation on the surface is a clockwise pattern, driven by wind, all around the North Atlantic basin. Either way, the extrapolations in the movie are preposterous. What we see are several gigantic storms in the northern hemisphere that return the Pleistocene ice caps to their full size in the course of just a few days. Storms, however, require a lot of energy, and Arctic cold, however warmed from the past, cannot provide it. Hurricanes, or the moisture for a New England "Nor'easter" snowstorm, comes from the tropics. This impossible storm over North America then generates a huge storm surge that buries New York City in water. Unfortunately, storm surges are generated by storms at sea, which is where this storm isn't. The clincher, though, is that the giant storms draw down super cold air from the stratosphere into their centers, which flash freezes everything, including the water that is to reconstitute the Pleistocene glaciers. The producers, writers, or advisors to the movie, however, failed to recollect that storms form around low pressure centers and that in low pressure centers air is rising, not falling. High pressure, where air descends, commonly brings the coldest temperatures, with clear skies. A comparable problem occurs with the portrayal of an outbreak of tornadoes in Los Angeles. Now, small tornadoes have been spotted in the Los Angeles Basin, and waterspouts have been filmed off the coast, but outbreaks of tornadoes have rather more to do with geography than with anything else. Flat terrain between a dry continental north and the warm, humid Gulf of Mexico makes central North America the tornado capital of the world. Mountains, of whatever size, break up airflow and disrupt tornado formation. This is evident anywhere, but is particularly conspicuous in the genuinely mountainous environs of Los Angeles.
So it must be asked why the movie takes these liberties with the truth. First, it could simply be a traditional Hollywood "disaster" movie, where truth and science are suspended for purposes of entertainment. This is "poetic license." The movie succeeds on that basis and was very successful at the boxoffice. Second, however, the movie could be a dishonest bit of political propaganda. This is more what it looks like. The political dimension of the movie is obvious, first because it begins at an environmental conference, attended by the Vice President of the United States -- an obvious version of actual Vice President Dick Cheney. A nastier political edge runs through the film when we see that the Vice President is the one really in charge and that the President, a George Bush clone, is uninvolved and ineffectual. The President gets killed, and the Vice President, who has fled to the American Embassy in Mexico, finds eco-Religion, confessing his sins and undertaking to Save the Earth.
Greenhouse Warming Advocates Say:
"Nineteen ninety-nine was the most violent year in the modern history of weather. So was 1998. So was 1997. And 1996.... A nine-hundred-year-long cooling trend has been suddenly and decisively reversed in the past fifty years.... Scientists predicted that the Earth will shortly be warmer than it has been in millions of years. A climatological nightmare is upon us. It is almost certainly the most dangerous thing that has ever happened in our history."
"Climate extremes would trigger meteorological chaos—raging hurricanes such as we have never seen, capable of killing millions of people; uncommonly long, record-breaking heat waves; and profound drought that could drive Africa and the entire Indian subcontinent over the edge into mass starvation."
"From sweltering heat to rising sea levels, global warming's effects have already begun.... We know where most heat-trapping gases come from: power plants and vehicles. And we know how to limit their emissions."
"Such policies like cutting energy use by more than 50 percent can contribute powerfully to the material salvation of the planet from mankind's greed and indifference."
"No matter if the science of global warming is all phony ... climate change [provides] the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world."
Reality-Based Skeptics Say:
"The study, appearing in the March 21 issue of the journal Science, analyzed ancient tree rings from 14 sites on three continents in the northern hemisphere and concluded that temperatures in an era known as the Medieval Warm Period some 800 to 1,000 years ago closely matched the warming trend of the 20th century."
"I want to encourage the committee to be suspicious of media reports in which weather extremes are given as proof of human-induced climate change. Weather extremes occur somewhere all the time. For example, in the year 2000 in the 48 coterminous states, the U.S. experienced the coldest combined November and December in 106 years.... The intensity and frequency of hurricanes have not increased. The intensity and frequency of tornados have not increased.... Droughts and wet spells have not statistically increased or decreased."
"Hurricanes, brutal cold fronts and heat waves, ice storms and tornadoes, cycles of flood and drought, and earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are not unforeseeable interruptions of normality. Rather, these extremes are the way that the planet we live on does its business. Hurricanes, in some parts of the world, provide a third of the average annual rainfall. What we call "climate" is really an average of extremes of heat and cold, precipitation and drought.... [A]ll the evidence from paleoclimatology and geology suggests that over the long haul, the extremes we face will be substantially greater than even the strongest in our brief historical record."
"[T]he number of major [Chinese] floods averaged fewer than four per century in the warm period of the ninth through eleventh centuries, while the average number was more than double that figure in the fourteenth through seventeenth centuries of the Mini Ice Age."
We have a large faction of intensely interested persons who say the warming is man-made, and dangerous. They say it is driven by releases of greenhouse gases such as CO2 from power plants and autos, and methane from rice paddies and cattle herds. The activists tell us that modern society will destroy the planet; that unless we radically change human energy production and consumption, the globe will become too warm for farming and the survival of wild species. They warn that the polar ice caps could melt, raising sea levels and flooding many of the world's most important cities and farming regions.
However, they don't have much evidence to support their position—only (1) the fact that the Earth is warming, (2) a theory that doesn't explain the warming of the past 150 years very well, and (3) some unverified computer models. Moreover, their credibility is seriously weakened by the fact that many of them have long believed modern technology should be discarded whether the Earth is warming too fast or not at all.
Many scientists—though by no means all—agree that increased CO2emissions could be dangerous. However, polls of climate-qualified scientist show that many doubt the scary predictions of the global computer models. This book cites the work of many hundreds of researchers, authors, and coauthors whose work testifies to the 1,500-year cycle. There is no "scientific consensus," as global warming advocates often claim. Nor is consensus important to science. Galileo may have been the only man of his day who believed the Earth revolved around the sun, but he was right! Science is the process of developing theories and testing them against observations until they are proven true or false.
If we can find proof, not just that the Earth is warming, but that it is warming to dangerous levels due to human-emitted greenhouse gases, public policy will then have to evaluate such potential remedies as banning autos and air conditioners. So far, we have no such evidence.
If the warming is natural and unstoppable, then public policy must focus instead on adaptations—such as more efficient air conditioning and building dikes around low-lying areas like Bangladesh. We have the warming. Now we must ascertain its cause...
History, science, and our own instincts tell us that cold is more frightening than warmth. It is a psychological mystery why comfortable First World residents, armed for the first time in all of history's warmings with air conditioning, have chosen to fear "global warming."
Of course, the advocates of man-made warming have attempted to bolster a scientifically weak case with a number of essentially baseless scary scenarios...
More than a Million of the World's Wild Species Will Go Extinct in the Next Century
We know that species can adapt to abrupt global warming because the climate shifts in the 1,500-year cycle have often been abrupt. Moreover, the world's species have already survived at least six hundred such warmings and coolings in the past million years.
The major effect of global warming will be more biodiversity in our forests, as most trees, plants, birds, and animals extend their ranges. This is already happening. Some biologists claim that a further warming of 0.8 degrees Celsius will destroy thousands of species. However, the Earth warmed much more than that during the Holocene Climate Optimum, which occurred 8,000 to 5,000 years ago, and no known species were driven extinct by the temperature increase...
Why have humans chosen to panic about the planet returning to what is very probably the finest climate the planet has known in all its millions of years? Is it simply guilt because climate alarmists told us we humans were causing the change?
If so, then it becomes all the more important to check their evidence.
In the morning, in the night light, in the shadows before dawn, these moments with God prickling in the fabric of things, long after the sickness and melancholy which had blanketed him in those far-off days, when he had been on the orange concrete floor, either unconscious or on all fours, the fabric of things creaking and groaning in a shrill hallucinogenic shriek. What was it al about? How did he sink so low? Why were these random, rampant thoughts so consuming, when other souls went quietly about their days, their breathing animal flesh so soft, so unthreatening, so self contained.
These oddities, these peculiar spires, were all part of the infested thought disorder that had made him so vulnerable to take over. They were having lunch at the Maroubra Hotel one day with the crazy girl Karen, who had landed in Ian's lounge room for a month, and as he sipped his lemon squash and watched every other asshole on the planet enjoy a drink, a particularly evil looking person pulled up at the lights. He had Somoan tatoos all over him, the sweeping evil strokes, and his hair glistened black. His eyes, too, were black, set in a pale face.
We all looked at each other and laughed. Woh, wouldn't like to get in his way, I said. He's infested with entities, Karen said, you can see them. It seemed so patently true, he appeared completely demonic, that it was difficult to argue. You think? I asked. Certainly looks it. Of course, she said, isn't it obvious.
Her own life was not in order, she was no role model. She was out of a job, out of a house, out of a relationship, childless and scattered, and no one could pretend that everything was going well for Karen. I she an undercover agent? we asked. She's not like everybody else? No, Ian said, I've known her for ages. She was Kevin's girlfriend. Why anyone would put up with speed addled Kev, in his giant old mechanics shop covered with grease and full of old cars, was anybody's guess.
But these infestations were everywhere, through his life, through the days, through everything we ever waited for. Sadness came. Darkness. Compulsion. Nothing changed in the darkness of Vauxhall. The mornings would come and we would be desperate, hanging like dogs, the sweat building. The only thing that stood in the way of a solution was money, and our sometimes vast intellectual talents were put to evil purpose, time and time again. Rats in a maze, they went through the same arking patterns every day; wake up, find money, score.
It was dark and Dantesque, the scenario. There was nothing like Vauxhall in the middle of winter to amplify one's personal despair, to mirror the tragic destinies of that sad little gang. We were marching forward, but nothing ever stopped. The same thing would happen the next day, the same sweats, the same compulsions, the same urges, the same desperate search for money.
And then they would wait in that strange little alcove on the top floor of the Vauxhall Terrace, wait until the ladder was lowered down from the attic, and the deal was done. No one but the closest of allies were ever allowed up that ladder, where the scenes of degradation defied everything that had been seen in Train Spotter and everything that he had imagined, all those years ago in Nimbin when the hippies decided it was time to change the world.
THE BIGGER STORY:
http://www.friesian.com/crichton.htm#crichton
If the evidence is against global warming, or ambiguous, or irrelevant, why has it become such an issue? The answer seems to be a moral and political one. We are trashing the planet with human civilization, foolishly wasting "natural resources," and hoarding wealth in the advanced countries that should be shared with the underdeveloped ones. This approach seems to be equal parts moralistic asceticism, that the virtuous embrace poverty, and the remnants of "lumpen Marxism" and the kind of half-baked socialism that is the best that the Left can do these days. The asceticism goes down well with the "chattering classes" of the press, politics, and academia, though few members of these groups practice any kind of asceticism themselves -- a point well illustrated by Crichton (the maids drive the hybrids). The socialism still sounds good in the same circles, even though all its forms are now so incoherent and discredited that they can withstand neither a moment of critical reflection nor the slightest comparison with historical experience. Nothing "trashes" the planet like even a small asteroid, or a large volcano, and human activities are pinpricks in comparison. Wealth, on the other hand, comes from human activity, not piles of "resources." Poor countries are poor, not because they lack natural resources (often they have an abundance, far more than the second largest economy on Earth, Japan), but because they lack capital, especially human capital. Human capital, indeed, consists of the kinds of skills, habits, and striving that are always bitterly resented when only ethnic minorities possess them -- minorities like the Chinese in Southeast Asia, Indians in East Africa, or Jews in Eastern Europe. They are then damned, while robbed or expelled, with all the bogus principles used to belabor capitalism -- leaving behind, of course, continuing poverty. Human capital, indeed, can generate wealth while beginning with very little of other kinds of capital. A Japan that was all but flattened by bombing, including atomic bombing, in World War II, rebuilt itself and surpassed all its former foes (except one) and allies in not much more than thirty years.
Crichton's attitude seems to have changed a bit since Jurassic Park. There we had a cautionary tale of human arrogance, with gems like, "Discovery is always a rape of the natural world," pronounced by the prophet mathematician Ian Malcolm, whose understanding of Chaos Theory seems to boil down principally to a restatement of Murphy's Law. The moral of the approach seems to be that, as Nature cannot be controlled, modern science is a fraud, a mistake, a sin, or something of the sort. Since Malcolm himself, however, says that mathematics "is just an arbitrary game," it is not clear why this, as he asserts, describes reality more fully than any other "arbitrary game." Since he doesn't advocate giving up civilization and going back to the Pleistocene (though he does seem to say that human life was just as good 30,000 years ago as now), the upshot is that we are not told what we should do instead -- and the Malcolm of the book dies, unlike the Malcolm (Jeff Goldblum) of the movie. On the other hand, Malcolm also denies that the planet, or life in general, are in any kind of trouble from our activities. It is only ourselves, not the planet, that we endanger.
Although the popularity of Jurassic Park is probably due in great measure to the theme of human arrogance and "rape of the natural world" (with the irony that the embodiments of the sin, the revived dinosaurs, are as much the draw for the movie as they would have been for the fictional Jurassic Park), the Crichton of State of Fear seems to have taken the later insight, that the planet will do just fine, more to heart, to the cost of the former. At the same time, Malcolm was quite right that Nature cannot be controlled. The problem with that is just the ideology with which it is always coupled, i.e. that human beings can and should be controlled. No one complains about the human treatment of nature without wanting to stop it, to leave Nature alone, apparently because Nature is better off without us. We see the affinity of militant ecology to the Left in the desire to suppress freedom and control people, or at least people's economic activities (though the forced abortions in China are also popular in some circles). The very idea that Nature can be "preserved" is refuted by Crichton with a fine example, how Yellowstone National Park was intended, through all its history, to be a preserve of natural life, but instead was changed repeatedly by the very measures expected to preserve it. Withdrawing humans from wilderness and then believing that Nature will there simply continue unchanged is itself a form of control, one as unlikely to work as expected as any other intervention. Militant ecology indeed assumes the very principle it uses to belabor human arrogance, that human life is different and distinct from Nature. Human arrogance, of course, supposes that human life is better than Nature, while militant ecology supposes that human life is worse than Nature.
The truth is that neither Nature nor human life can or should be controlled. Human cultural, intellectual, and scientific evolution simply continues the process by which evolution produces life in the first place -- human civilization embodies more of the forms of spontaneous order that are embodied in the structures of matter, the universe, and life. Despite the popularity of ecological ideas and the moralistic condemnations in books like Jurassic Park, it is also noteworthy that political measures with significant economic costs (at least obvious ones) are commonly losers in politics. A good example of that was the "BTU" (British Thermal Unit) tax that was proposed by the Clinton Administration when it assumed office in 1993. The idea behind such a tax was to make all forms of energy more expensive, which would discourage energy use and promote the development of "alternative" sources of cheap energy. This had in particular been a campaign theme of Bill Clinton's Vice President, Al Gore, who published an eco-doomsday book for the campaign (Earth in the Balance). With solid majorities in Congress, there was nothing to stand in the way of such a proposal by the Democratic Party. Nevertheless, the tax failed and was never revived (although other taxes were increased). Despite it being a constant theme of ecological complaint that gasoline in the United States is too cheap, and should be more like the $5 a gallon common in Europe, it does not escape notice that any serious rise in gasoline prices is greeted with howls of protest. The Democratic Party knew that it is better that such protests be directed at the oil companies and the market, rather than at a Democratic Congress.
A similar political dislocation occurred in 2004 with the movie The Day After Tomorrow. This was a heavy handed tale of ecological doom, based on the idea that Artic melting would lower the salinity of the North Atlantic, stop the Gulf Stream, and plunge Europe, at least (North America too, in the movie), into a new Ice Age. This is a real theory, and of some interest. Its catastrophism suffers from the difficulty that the Gulf Stream does not simply flow north and then sink (as heavy salt water) and return south at depth, but that the circulation on the surface is a clockwise pattern, driven by wind, all around the North Atlantic basin. Either way, the extrapolations in the movie are preposterous. What we see are several gigantic storms in the northern hemisphere that return the Pleistocene ice caps to their full size in the course of just a few days. Storms, however, require a lot of energy, and Arctic cold, however warmed from the past, cannot provide it. Hurricanes, or the moisture for a New England "Nor'easter" snowstorm, comes from the tropics. This impossible storm over North America then generates a huge storm surge that buries New York City in water. Unfortunately, storm surges are generated by storms at sea, which is where this storm isn't. The clincher, though, is that the giant storms draw down super cold air from the stratosphere into their centers, which flash freezes everything, including the water that is to reconstitute the Pleistocene glaciers. The producers, writers, or advisors to the movie, however, failed to recollect that storms form around low pressure centers and that in low pressure centers air is rising, not falling. High pressure, where air descends, commonly brings the coldest temperatures, with clear skies. A comparable problem occurs with the portrayal of an outbreak of tornadoes in Los Angeles. Now, small tornadoes have been spotted in the Los Angeles Basin, and waterspouts have been filmed off the coast, but outbreaks of tornadoes have rather more to do with geography than with anything else. Flat terrain between a dry continental north and the warm, humid Gulf of Mexico makes central North America the tornado capital of the world. Mountains, of whatever size, break up airflow and disrupt tornado formation. This is evident anywhere, but is particularly conspicuous in the genuinely mountainous environs of Los Angeles.
So it must be asked why the movie takes these liberties with the truth. First, it could simply be a traditional Hollywood "disaster" movie, where truth and science are suspended for purposes of entertainment. This is "poetic license." The movie succeeds on that basis and was very successful at the boxoffice. Second, however, the movie could be a dishonest bit of political propaganda. This is more what it looks like. The political dimension of the movie is obvious, first because it begins at an environmental conference, attended by the Vice President of the United States -- an obvious version of actual Vice President Dick Cheney. A nastier political edge runs through the film when we see that the Vice President is the one really in charge and that the President, a George Bush clone, is uninvolved and ineffectual. The President gets killed, and the Vice President, who has fled to the American Embassy in Mexico, finds eco-Religion, confessing his sins and undertaking to Save the Earth.
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